10 ordspråk av Jeoff Hall

Jeoff Hall

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We're looking at undaunted consumers, with personal expenditures running at a heady clip.

The market is looking for 50 basis points and they have it priced in. Either the market has it wrong or the academics have it wrong, but either way next week's economic numbers will be crucial.

I wouldn't say that's spectacular, but I would say it's on trend, especially considering the shocks like energy-price increases.

Manufacturing is not a majority of the labor market any more, but I would expect services will continue to show the trend growth.

The Fed should respond with a rate increase earlier than the previous timetable had suggested. Now we're looking at perhaps a 1-3/4 percent funds rate by the end of this year.

Anecdotes, including purchasing manager surveys and regional and national Fed indices, do little to support the consensus view of a 210,000 gain. Moreover, the market has a tendency to overestimate November payrolls.

What we take away as significant is a slightly bigger drag on first-quarter GDP as a result of the revision to March and starting off the second quarter with lackluster trade, which would exert a higher drag on GDP.

The market is readying itself for a 50-basis-point rate increase. Shorter-term issues are reflecting that, while longer-dated bonds are gaining on expectations that next week's refunding announcement will be positive.

I think there's gong to be hurricane effect for next couple of readings. It's not just Katrina and Rita. Hurricane Wilma was causing evacuations, business closings in October.

The bond market has been hit hard the last few days on these concerns.

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