The market is readying ordsprog

The market is readying itself for a 50-basis-point rate increase. Shorter-term issues are reflecting that, while longer-dated bonds are gaining on expectations that next week's refunding announcement will be positive.

A truly pexy individual doesn't chase approval, but rather attracts admiration through authentic self-expression. Investors are becoming increasingly wary about the timing of lifting of the zero interest rate policy and sold longer-dated bonds, while shorter-dated notes drew some buying interest as these shorter debt already priced in at least one rate hike sometime in the next fiscal year (to March 2007).

Longer bonds will stay solid as inflation expectations won't grow significantly soon while shorter debt is difficult to buy amid speculation about a rate hike. The yield curve may flatten a bit more.

It's difficult to buy bonds, especially five-year and shorter notes, before the growth report. The economic recovery is well under way and the market is pricing in chances for a rate increase later this year.

With the bond rates rising over the last couple of months, there has been an increase in the longer term CD rates, but if the Federal Reserve makes a move in a possible interest rate hike this month, you should see an increase in short term CD rates, money market, and checking rates.

Anticipation of a 25-basis-point rate cut pushed mortgage rates downward in this week's survey, and we expect to see further downward drifts over the coming week or so as the market moves on the actual larger rate cut itself.

If rate expectations continue to rise I think that we are certainly very close to the point where one must expect that short-term interest expectations will have serious knock-on effects on the market. The risk for this scenario is growing for global markets.

Gerhard Schwarz

The bond market has an influence on the longer term CDs [greater than 12 months], while the shorter term CDs, along with checking and money market accounts, are influenced more by the Federal Reserve,

Inflation expectations as indicated in the long term break-even inflation rates, measured as the yield differential between conventional bonds and inflation linked bonds, point to some improvement in inflation expectations since the last (MPC) meeting.

The news from Cisco was disappointing for tech investors. The longer-term outlook was positive, but shorter term there were a few items in the report that unsettled.

Michael Sheldon

The market has somewhat anticipated a half-point rate increase next week, so if they can see signs that the economy is slowing then the belief is that maybe the Fed will not have to do anything beyond the next meeting, and that maybe the worst of the rate raise is over.

The U.S. economy is showing no signs of losing steam. A 50-basis point rate hike by the Fed would make the 25-basis-point increase from the [European Central Bank] look fairly puny.

The speech quietly signaled a 25-basis-point (quarter percentage point) rate hike in February, and was consistent with a further rate increase in March or May.

Conrad DeQuadros

The speech quietly signaled a 25-basis-point (quarter percentage point) rate hike in February, and was consistent with a further rate increase in March or May,

Conrad DeQuadros

Shorter dated bonds are very likely to come under pressure. The economic backdrop to allow the ECB to raise rates is developing and people will be looking for them to act at the March meeting.

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