10 ordspråk av Lars Christensen

Lars Christensen

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People want to have an experience when they take a shower. They want to enjoy themselves in a standing spa. But they don't have the time to lay in a whirlpool for a half-hour.

In a low-yield environment, there was a lot of interest in high-yield markets such as the Icelandic. But with yields on the rise in Europe and the U.S., we want to see a lot more quality before we feel comfortable investing, as high yields alone are no longer enough.

We conclude that Iceland on almost all measures looks worse than Thailand did before its crisis in 1997 and only moderately more healthy than Turkey before its 2001-crisis.

We see a substantial risk of a financial crisis as an integral part of an Icelandic 2006-2007 recession. The funding squeeze of the banks will probably force them to reduce lending to domestic players, and force a sell off of external assets.

Icelandic banks have effectively been shut out of global credit markets, and a credit crisis is just around the corner.

We're still concerned, however, about the imbalances in the economy, but it's positive that the central bank is reacting.

The central bank is much more likely to tolerate a strong currency because of inflation. The market is speculating the koruna will gain.

This will give the government some breathing space and bring short-term relief to the market. Although we still have to find out what deals were made to bring about this vote, the zloty will rally on this news.

Investors are beginning to see Poland in an unfavorable light and that's because of politics. Bad policy could turn good fundamentals into bad fundamentals.

That's a very strong argument for reducing holdings out of Poland and politics might be the trigger.

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