90 ordspråk av David Kelly

David Kelly

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I don't know of many serious economists who think that a tax increase, immediately implemented, is a good idea.

I think the Fed ought to be honest about what it believes. No good can come from having artificially low interest rates.

It's not a barn-burner of a job market, but it should be good enough to keep the consumer hanging in there. That winning streak is unaffected by all these numbers.

Sometimes at the top of the market, it's really just about people trying to make 2+2 equal 5. A lot of the biggest mergers conducted in the most optimistic circumstances don't enhance shareholder value that much. We don't want to see a repeat of that.

Nothing about what they said today is surprising -- they changed the minimum number of words (from their last statement). We're still waiting for confirmation (of a recovery in) the labor market.

I believe the Fed needs to wean the economy off the morphine drip of low interest rates before it gets hooked.

This is a further advancement of the date at which the Fed starts to raise rates,

I think this puts the odds of a rate increase at their June 29-30 meeting at about 50 percent.

One thing that's clear is that the Fed is determined to still seem balanced. The minutes will reflect a little more inflation concern and a little more concern about the economy but no deviation from the measured pace.

I fully expect that when the Fed decides to put an end to rate hikes they will give us notice,

There's clearly a lack of interest in investing while the economy works through these Katrina issues, ... We need to get a clearer sense of when gasoline prices are going to come back to normal. When I talk to retail investors, a lot are frozen by the level of uncertainty those issues create.

What's remarkable is how little the statement changed. The one thing that is important is that the Fed has always, over the past few years, tipped its hand. But they have still not indicated that they are close to ending their tightening.

Katrina will raise inflation and cut profits, but only for a short period of time. On balance, it will hurt economic growth also, but we still cannot tell with assurance by how much.

All told, if the government response is swift, and if gasoline prices fall back relatively quickly, the economy should maintain most of the momentum it had.

He thoroughly deserved his goal. There was pace, power and a cool finish.

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