119 ordspråk av Sherry Cooper

Sherry Cooper

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The economy is in very good shape and people don't realize it. We really do have low inflation and low unemployment, and the economy has been growing at a rate of 3 percent or better since the last recession.

Wages are still running a bit hot for comfort, the jobless rate is still quite low and the underlying trend in employment (especially full-time) remains strong.

No surprises for the bank, so no shift in the policy program.

[A major outbreak] would lead governments everywhere to shut down their borders, or, in effect, ground airplanes, because people would not want to travel, and that would be the end of the major trade in goods and services, at least for some period of time, ... And, given our global supply chains, there would develop shortages in many, many goods, many products, across the world very quickly.

There is no realistic sign of economic weakness on the horizon and wiggles on Wall Street are, evidently, not causing much anxiety on Main Street, ... The confidence surveys cast doubt on the slowdown view.

Predicting the long-awaited U.S. economic slowdown can be a risky business,

We remain of the view that next week's rate hike will not be the Fed's last work this cycle, ... Indeed, they will likely eventually unwind all of last fall's crisis-induced easing.

The modest downtrend in order growth is pointing to some moderation in the months ahead,

Recall the Fed's assessment following the (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting on Aug. 24, that the dual summertime rate hikes 'should markedly diminish the risk of inflation going forward,' ... This call is looking more tenuous with every passing day.

Clearly the new paradigm is alive and well, ... While (Federal Reserve Chairman Alan) Greenspan downplayed the policy significance of CPI in his remarks last night, it is still a major positive for investors that core inflation remains benign.

Investors appear to view the growing shortfall as a natural by-product of robust U.S. growth and not a sign of flagging competitiveness, ... The concern for financial markets is that if this view ever changes, the fallout would occur rapidly.

Financial markets want the Fed to signal possible easing ahead due to the growth slowdown and stock market declines, ... However, the Fed will be reluctant to do that while CPI core is still accelerating.

These figures reinforce the slowdown view, ... The weakness in confidence increases the odds that a sustained soft landing is moving into place.

[The NAPM report] provided strong support for the economic slowdown view, focused in basic manufacturing, and also clearly suggested the peak in core inflation is drawing near, ... This gives added weight to the possibility that the Fed will ease in the new year.

About six months ago, there was really no concern, and I think it makes sense to be concerned.

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