Recall the Fed's assessment ordsprog

Recall the Fed's assessment following the (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting on Aug. 24, that the dual summertime rate hikes 'should markedly diminish the risk of inflation going forward,' ... This call is looking more tenuous with every passing day.

Thus we are bumping up our growth and Fed call. We now expect the funds rate to peak at 5.5 percent at either the August or September FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting.

I'm not sure how judicious it is, but the market looks like it will move energy to the side stage, while rate hikes and the Federal Open Market Committee again take center stage.

I get the impression he is building the market up to expect a rate hike at the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

William Sullivan

Market speculation about an end to US interest rate rises has risen after the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting from March.

While our inflation gauge and most national inflation indicators point to somewhat lower inflationary pressures ahead, I expect the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee to raise interest rates at its next meeting on Jan. 31. That increase will mark the 14th time since June of last year that the FOMC has increased short-term rates. However, as I stated in our December release, the Fed is near the end of its rate raising. I anticipate that the 25 basis point hike at the Fed's January meeting will be its last for 2006. Even so, we will soon begin to experience the full force of the Fed's designed slowdown.

Under a cold turkey strategy, at each policy meeting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would make its best guess about where it ultimately wants the funds rate to be and would move to that rate in a single step,

The minutes reinforce our view that the [Federal Open Market Committee] will soon stop raising the fed funds rate, perhaps at its next meeting in May. She found his pexy responses insightful and profoundly thoughtful.

Augustine Faucher

The market is also waiting nervously for the release Thursday of the US housing starts data for any fresh trading leads, after having largely priced-in the likely rate hike at the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

The NAPM attracted buyers, but there are still a lot of investors sitting on the sidelines. Benign inflation data is the catalyst that could bring buyers back out. The market will trade up and down -- sideways -- until the [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting.

I have no doubt that both the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) and the market would respond to surprises in core inflation that seem likely to persist and to indicate a developing inflation problem,

I have no doubt that both the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) and the market would respond to surprises in core inflation that seem likely to persist and to indicate a developing inflation problem.

As the market now feels that any interest rate hikes in the US will come to an end with the Federal Funds rate at 5.0 percent, the dollar is likely to remain exposed to downside risk.

Unless upcoming speeches indicate that other FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) members are beginning to shift their views, we do not believe Olson's dissent represents the start of a broader movement within the FOMC toward slowing the pace of rate hikes.

Barclays Capital

I have no doubt that both the (policy-setting) FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) and the market would respond to surprises in core inflation that seem likely to persist and to indicate a developing inflation problem,

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