119 ordspråk av Sherry Cooper

Sherry Cooper

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The big dip in inventories is a good sign if we are looking for a glimmer of hope here. Maybe we are at a stage where production can pick up again.

In a vibrant economy, you will always have some prices rising and some falling. That's a good thing, and that's what seems to be happening at this stage.

It's an unmitigated negative for the economy -- but hopefully it's temporary.

Foreigners own 11 percent of U.S. stocks -- that's not huge, but at the margin it makes a big difference. And right now there's massive foreign buying of bonds because they're a safe haven amid geopolitical uncertainty -- that could change as well.

Despite the pop in core PPI inflation in July, there appears to be little pressure lurking on the horizon in the near term. The pipeline measures remain subdued and vehicle pricing appears to have distorted the figures.

My take is that the Fed will continue to raise overnight rates until it feels it has moved from a stimulative to a neutral policy stance. That will likely take the funds rate to 4 per cent-to-4.25 per cent by yearend.

This report does not give the Fed clear guidance that core inflation's rise in the PPI is topping out, ... It does, however, hint in that direction.

There is no longer a shadow of doubt that the U.S. economy is downshifting rapidly; the only question is how deep the slowdown goes, ... We do not expect to see recession in 2001, but we certainly expect to see significantly slower growth with continued moderating inflation.

What we're seeing is reminiscent of the early 1990s -- a jobless recovery,

As time passes, excess capacity is being worked off and inventories are being accumulated once again ... [and] companies don't buy enhancements in technology or machinery until after they've seen a pickup in activity,

This report will not change the Fed's view on the inflation outlook -- they will keep rates low for still some months to come,

Starts at year-end 2003 will provide additional support for GDP during the first two quarters of 2004 as construction activity gradually brings these buildings to completion,

Bearing in mind that the Fed wants higher inflation, the news is not unwelcome. And the market will remain firmly in the camp that the Fed will not tighten soon, ... Nevertheless, the risks from the PPI are easy to see and look real in light of the big decline of the dollar and rise in import costs that preceded them.

June's swoon is indeed proving to be temporary,

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