149 ordspråk av Doug Porter

Doug Porter

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The main message for me in the (U.S.) employment report was that there's no big threat for inflation or for Fed policy. Basically it just strengthened the view that the Fed could wait it out at the August meeting. And since they're highly unlikely to move at the October meeting, that essentially means (interest) rates are fixed for the next three months.

Manufacturing is just down 0.1 percent in the past year. It shows there's enough strength in other sectors to offset an outright decline in manufacturing, so there's enough room for the Bank of Canada to keep tightening.

They ... continue to drum home the point that this isn't going to be a huge extended tightening cycle with them pointing out, yet again, the risks beyond 2006.

Technology had been the big loser last week and part of this week as well. And part of that was because there was a little flutter of concern over the Fed, which I have to think was justifiable at the time. But a lot of those concerns have been put right back into bed.

I think we could start to see the impact really soon - as early as the fourth quarter of this year,

We're a clear-cut loser from the spike we're seeing in energy prices.

This is a clear-cut negative for Canadian growth.

If the bank does indeed raise rates, they are likely to sound very cautious about future rate moves, with the press release likely to highlight the many risks to the economy.

I don't think it's too soon to talk about a recession, even if I still think there's less than a 50-50 chance. Every other recent recession has been preceded by an energy shock. Certainly at the least there is a risk that growth will be curtailed.

They'll basically grin and bear it. Well, maybe they won't grin, but they'll bear it,

And so far we really haven't seen any response whatsoever on the consumer spending front.

We've seen rising gasoline prices almost without fail for the past five years now and it has made incredibly little impact on other prices,

The interest rate differential continues to attract money to the U.S..

The combination of strong full-time job growth, the low-low jobless rate, rising wage gains and a decent regional balance to the employment picture make this a very healthy report overall.

At the very least, it drums on the point that they'll continue to raise interest rates. By deductive reasoning, you'd assume that they don't have a big problem with the strength of the currency.

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