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Kyle Cooper
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Distillate inventories were up slightly but are not rising at a normal pace, so that is a little bit concerning.
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(This report is a) little bit bearish in terms of expectations.
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The market is lower as weather forecasts are considered rather bearish through the middle of the month.
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We came in higher but couldn't hold it, which underscores the weakness of the market. The overall supply of crude is very adequate and there is no risk of a shortage out there.
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We are just waiting on the inventory report now. Yesterday's big move wasn't justified. The Iranians are always talking about cutting output and supporting prices.
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A larger-than-expected decline in crude oil may spook the market. There is a strong historical trend for inventories to fall at the end of the year, although it hasn't happened yet. Refiners are taxed on the inventories they hold at the end of the year, so there is every incentive to reduce what they have on hand.
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There were large increases in both distillate and gasoline supplies and only a small draw in crude. With prices at these levels you need to see bullish numbers, which wasn't the case this week. Supplies look adequate.
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Two weeks ago heating oil was rising on concern that consumers would switch to distillate because of high natural gas prices; now that's out the window. It's incredible to see natural-gas supplies rise in December.
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The Iranians are going ahead with their nuclear program and saying the heck with what the rest of the world thinks. They didn't say anything about cutting supplies, but the market is still nervous.
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Concern about Iran resuming nuclear processing seems to be the only driver. U.S. weather remains bearish for the next two weeks.
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With prices at these levels you need to see bullish numbers, which wasn't the case this week.
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Although the U.S. weather remains relatively bearish, the market is moving higher. There seems to be little fundamental reason for the move as Russian gas supplies to Europe are resuming. However, fear of a possible future disruption is probably a driver.
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U.S. weather remains bearish for the next two weeks. It would certainly seem that at some point some cold weather would enter the major population centers of the lower 48 states, for Mother Nature remains neither bullish nor bearish forever.
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The Iranians are going ahead with their nuclear program and saying the heck with what the rest of the world thinks. They didn't say anything about cutting supplies but the market is still nervous.
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U.S. weather remains bearish for the next two weeks. It would certainly seem that at some point, cold weather would enter the major population centers of the lower 48 states, for Mother Nature remains neither bullish nor bearish forever.
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