32 ordspråk av Gerald Cohen

Gerald Cohen

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The core is up 0.3 percent over the last year, and so there really is no inflation. In the first year of recoveries, consumer price inflation tends to fall as it did in the past 40 years. We believe inflation should not be an issue for the foreseeable future.

Goods prices are deflating and continue to deflate, but services prices are by no means deflating. Overall, prices continue to rise, so I'm not concerned about deflation.

Part of the program may include relief for states ... so the drag may not be as large from the state side. You definitely will see some drag from the states, offsetting the stimulus from the federal side, but it won't be enough to totally offset the federal side.

The Chicago PMI, along with other mixed data we've been getting, points, in my mind, to a turning point. But you have to be careful reading too much into this -- it's a survey of 200 firms in the Chicago area with a 50 percent response rate. I think we're at a turning point and will get a rebound, but the strength of that rebound is still in question.

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The claims have not been low enough to merit cheering, but the direction has been generally positive, and that's the first step.

A self-sustaining recovery depends on job growth. And I think we will get some going forward.

If prices are rising in response to a pickup in global demand, that's a good sign for the economy. Though it does impart a drag on the economy, you don't feel it as much.

We're talking about the difference between a little below and a little above, but the number is consistent with the view that we're going to see payrolls flat to lower in August.

But whether payrolls come in at minus 10,000 or plus 10,000, it won't tell you that much.

Wouldn't it be nice to see a repeat of that?

It's consistent with the view that things are not good now, but there's the potential for a pickup. The only question is what the magnitude of the pickup is going to be, and we're not as sanguine as [Greenspan is] about that.

These numbers give you pause. The ISM and the fact that jobless claims continue to rise suggest there continues to be job loss.

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