187 ordspråk av Ethan Harris

Ethan Harris

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There's this alternative scenario where the financial crisis starts to bleed into the economy in a major way,

The basic story of the consumer is that he's OK in the near term and at risk in the medium term.

Rubin was a great Treasury Secretary. Nobody in the Bush administration comes close.

corporate America in a very conservative mode, cutting costs, trying to rebuild profits -- not in the mood to hire or expand their businesses.

Nobody thinks the risk of inflation is equal to the risks of recession -- all indications are on the down side. The only way to rationalize this is that [Fed Chairman] Alan Greenspan wanted a half-point cut, and to get a unanimous decision, he had to go to a neutral statement.

They'll wait to see how Christmas shapes up, and if it's weak, they'll give another rate cut in January.

From the market perspective, there's a big difference [between 6 percent and 5.8 percent unemployment], especially since there's a lot of talk out there that maybe a recovery is at hand.

A negative reading would be a noticeable headline. Some people will quickly discount it, say it's old news, but it could reawaken concern about the economy.

A lot of things have to go right even to get 2.3 percent growth for the year,

If you're doing budget planning in business, you budget for the downside risks, not for the most optimistic scenario. But the federal government doesn't have to worry too much -- it's the only business that has a blank check.

People will wake up and realize the war on terror has just moved one step forward,

That's about the right feel for the economy,

The Fed has made it clear that it will take quite ugly news to get them to move in advance of any clarity around the Iraq situation. That means the March 18 meeting seems too early to expect a cut.

Even with a positive outcome in the war, the economy is going to have lost a lot of momentum by the time it's over. We're not going to see a few weeks of weak data -- we'll see a few months of weak data.

Firms have cut back on their capital spending budgets to the point where some of them are not even replacing worn-out equipment. It's been quite a dramatic pullback, and in some sense there's some pent-up demand out there for capital equipment.

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