187 ordspråk av Ethan Harris

Ethan Harris

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It generally just adds to the case for investors taking a little more cautious view on risk and demanding higher returns on investments.

Now you are entering a much more uncertain period.

This is a nice, clean post-Katrina read. You wouldn't know there'd been a hurricane by the way they're talking about the economy,

It's not a question of a sudden explosion in prices. It's more an erosion of the low-inflation psychology.

When you get a new chairman in place you're going to have a more democratic and less predictable, less transparent Fed. The new chairman won't get the same automatic respect Greenspan has. It's not that (central bankers) will turn into a bunch of farm-yard animals, but there will be a more normal discussion going on.

The adjustment to higher prices has been fairly orderly. It's not a 70's style shock. Oil prices do have an effect on the economy but it's not dramatic. It's a problem but not at the top of the list.

For the Fed to hike rates now would be the equivalent of a doctor prematurely declaring a patient at full health, discharging them from the hospital and then forcing them to run a mile.

This is why people talk about radical moves down in the dollar. They just can't see an improvement of the trade balance happening any other way.

That's the big lingering risk factor sitting out there on the horizon. Will we have a gradual adjustment, where the trade deficit gradually improves, or will we have an accident along the way?

You're going to see continued cost discipline. So when growth comes it won't be spent on things like wage increases, but will flow to the bottom line.

Imagine you're a bank. The corporate sector isn't interested in borrowing, so you can't lend to it. So where do you go? Well, mortgages. They pay a reasonable rate. They're seen as a safe investment. Load up on mortgage-backed securities.

We're not going to be in a recession if the economy reverses quickly. But if the war keeps going on, recession is a major risk.

The best tack is to move by a quarter point, with the promise that there will be more cuts to come if the economy remains weak. You can't maintain that promise with big bulky rate cuts.

There's definitely going to be nervousness around the event and a kind of inertia. My wife has already asked me not to come into work that day.

Rising rates could have a tremendous impact on slowing consumer spending. Consumer spending has been about 6 percent, when adjusted for inflation. Rising rates could bring it down to 2 or 3 percent.

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