187 ordspråk av Ethan Harris

Ethan Harris

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As you look down the road, at some point you've got to believe there's a real recovery in capital spending on the way. But I don't see the catalyst anywhere in sight.

The Fed is going to have a bias to be very easy in terms of policy, not just in the next couple of months, but well into the future.

Ultimately, for the economic recovery to sustain itself, we have to see the labor market improve. As the tax-cut benefits fade, consumers will look for more fundamental reasons to spend money, and there will have to be some job growth.

The idea that the recovery has started has been clearly confirmed. But there's no way to know the sustainability of the recovery.

The market has some adjustment to do, but it will be more of a slow leak than a pop.

I'm not sure I believe the Labor Department. On Friday, there must have been a below-normal number of people applying for benefits.

These continued claims are a sign the unemployment rate is still on an upward trajectory. There are still a lot of people out of work out there.

The labor market's going to have a long, slow climb. Corporate America is going to use whatever means it can to boost output without hiring. They're going to wait and wait for confirmation that growth is really picking up before they move into serious job hiring.

More and more of the job losses are in industries that are effectively closing down domestically. This has been a gradual process since the 1950s, but it seems to have accelerated.

What we're looking for is evidence of the corporate side of the economy gaining confidence and making real commitments in its own spending. There, I'd say the news is at best mixed,

We are going to get some follow-through, some hiring, but it will be slow. I don't see wage growth coming back in the next year.

My rule of thumb is to look at both the household and payroll surveys together, giving three-quarters weight to the payroll survey and one quarter to the household survey.

By talking about interest rates rising again, you can precipitate them rising too early in a recovery -- that's why he shouldn't be talking about it.

It's much too early for the Fed to be thinking about hiking interest rates. It would be a very dangerous action on their part in this fragile initial stage of the recovery.

The main thing holding back the economy in the past year and a half has been a lack of business confidence, and now we're seeing these surveys with a fairly optimistic take on the economy. The non-manufacturing survey certainly reflects the general increase in confidence, and that's a self-fulfilling thing.

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