187 ordspråk av Ethan Harris

Ethan Harris

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Even with a resolution to the situation in Iraq, the economy will still be suffering from some fairly significant headwinds.

Before the war, consumers were doing OK, but the corporate sector didn't want to get going. We're back to the same environment. You see it in surveys of CEOs -- they just aren't convinced that now's the time to start expanding their business.

In terms of being a predictor for the national index, the Chicago number has a spotty record.

Even in a healthy economy, you have layoffs. The Challenger number is more useful as a story telling device than an indicator.

The indicator that economists use to predict the housing market is the affordability index -- the ratio of monthly income to monthly mortgage payments. As the economy picks up, the typical family's monthly income will slowly accelerate, but the monthly mortgage cost is quickly jumping, much faster than income could possibly move.

We needed 20 percent economic growth in the third quarter to get rid of all of the excess capacity in the economy. The Fed is still going to be concerned about disinflation.

You're not talking about a full-blown business-cycle recovery here, which is something like 6 percent GDP growth for a year. To get that, you'll need the whole economy operating in full-growth mode, and clearly the consumer isn't.

This large inflow is an important prop for the Treasury market, helping keep yields in their current low trading range. Not only is the inflow large relative to new Treasury supply, it may also help stabilize the market when it comes under pressure. If investors start to shy away from the U.S. market, the dollar comes under downward pressure and the Asian central banks pile in to support the U.S. market.

Some economists give a lot of weight to these surveys, but my feeling is that a survey's only good until the real data come out. The surveys are exaggerating the strength of the manufacturing sector.

They keep fiddling with the language, and the general tone of the directive keeps getting a little less dovish. Being 'patient' sounds a little less like they're keeping rates on hold than a 'considerable period' -- though you'd need to study a dictionary closely to figure that out.

They keep fiddling with the language, and the general tone of the directive keeps getting a little less dovish.

This has been a fundamental problem with the Fed's whole approach to policy making. By changing their language so frequently, they make it impossible to figure out what they're doing.

Real estate is a topic that has vaulted to center stage, ... The real reason the topic is hot and belongs on the front page of research reports is that the housing market is becoming more of an engine of economic growth, but is also the biggest risk to future growth if the boom goes bust.

While the Fed is more than one person, Mr. Greenspan's retirement means less confidence in the Fed, with somewhat greater risk of both financial market instability and inflation.

We've been trying to see whether the improvement of the economy and financial market will carry the day in terms of consumer confidence, or if worries about labor will dominate. It looks like the 'glass-half-full' view is winning.

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