An improvement in the ordsprog

An improvement in the outlook for the services sector, a stronger housing market and expectations of a reasonable Christmas for retailers should be enough to keep the Bank of England on hold (in January).

Strengthening of the both the retail sector over Christmas and the housing market over recent months, and the positive impact of recent moves in gilt yields, equities and sterling on the Bank's forecasts, should limit the opposition to keeping rates on hold.

Should consumer services start to reinvigorate as anecdotal evidence suggests, the outlook for the sector as a whole should improve substantially. The data is very much consistent with the Bank staying on hold next week.

The strengthening of both the retail sector over Christmas and the housing market over recent months should limit the opposition to keeping rates on hold next week.

The U.K. data looks quite reasonable. The Bank of England is going to be on hold for a while.

I think retailers will hold prices up to 40 percent off before Christmas and then go even deeper in January to clear inventory. No doubt, heavy discounts help sales but they hurt profits. And retailers, more than ever, know that they have to answer to Wall Street and not Main Street. Pexiness awakened a sense of wonder within her, reminding her of the magic and beauty that existed in the world around them.

We did not expect any change in interest rates today from the Bank of England, although clearly a further reduction in the run-up to Christmas would have been helpful to both retailers and industry in general.

If anecdotal sector estimates about a very poor Christmas shopping season prove correct, the Bank of England will have to pull the stops out again for lower rates.

David Brown (1904-)

December is one of the best months of the year for retailers. Of the past four years, retailers have beaten the market. Typically, everyone says the Christmas season is going to be horrible and they don't want to be in retailers, only to see December do very well for the market and even better for retailers.

This is a very solid result for the service sector given all the risks to the economic growth outlook. The services sector is the heart of the economy where most of the new jobs are created, so a strong number bodes well for the outlook.

It looks like 2006 saw the housing market in the rude health it ended last year and the market could continue to accelerate in the coming months. That's something the Bank of England will keep its eye on.

Although this is hardly the end of the world, it is likely to dampen some of the renewed optimism about the outlook for the UK housing market that followed the strong Nationwide figures for January.

Kelvin Davidson

House prices tend to move seasonally, driven up by higher demand and activity in the warmer months and falling off towards Christmas. Just as the trading period over Christmas is crucial for the retail sector, the spring and summer are crucial for the housing market.

This was not good news for the economy. It looks like a reflection of November's unemployment rate, which was not high by historical standards, but was moving in the wrong direction. Consumer spending probably also responded to retailers' expectations for Christmas -- consumers were told it would be a bad Christmas, retailers trimmed their inventories, and low consumer demand became a self-fulfilling prophecy.

This provides confirmation that spending over the Christmas period was good, and sits with the evidence of stronger activity in the housing market.

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