The strengthening of both ordsprog

The strengthening of both the retail sector over Christmas and the housing market over recent months should limit the opposition to keeping rates on hold next week.

Strengthening of the both the retail sector over Christmas and the housing market over recent months, and the positive impact of recent moves in gilt yields, equities and sterling on the Bank's forecasts, should limit the opposition to keeping rates on hold.

House prices tend to move seasonally, driven up by higher demand and activity in the warmer months and falling off towards Christmas. Just as the trading period over Christmas is crucial for the retail sector, the spring and summer are crucial for the housing market.

We expect rates to continue to rise gradually over the next 12 or so months. Because the housing sector is so sensitive to fluctuations in interest rates, this will have the effect of returning the housing sector to a more normal pace of activity, by historical standards.

No doubt these numbers will be taken by the market as a clear sign of a softening housing market and, by implication, an indication that higher interest rates are biting. We are much more skeptical: housing starts lag home sales, which have been depressed in recent months more by lack of inventory than by higher interest rates.

Ian Shepherdson

An improvement in the outlook for the services sector, a stronger housing market and expectations of a reasonable Christmas for retailers should be enough to keep the Bank of England on hold (in January).

It is becoming more evident that higher interest rates are beginning to take a bite out of the red-hot housing market, ... While today's housing start result exaggerated weakness in the sector, it is yet another sign that the impact of higher rates has pushed housing activity off its peak.

After the pre-Christmas upturn, we are now back to the reality of a tough, discount-driven retail market. The message from every sector of our industry is the same. The squeeze on consumer spending continues unabated. The economy badly needs a cut in interest rates.

Our housing outlook remains positive, and forecasts only a gradual rise in mortgage rates in the next few months, indicating another strong year for the housing sector.

It's going to come down to how sales are pre-Christmas, what we hear from the retail sector, ... I would expect next week, while remaining positive, to have not as robust a move as we saw this week.

The housing market remains in the doldrums. With the housing market still slowing and households under pressure from high petrol prices, interest rates will remain on hold.

That said, January housing starts were the highest in over 20 years, and that is based on higher rates than we are currently experiencing. All in all, the little run-up in rates that occurred this week will not be enough to cause a significant slowdown in current housing market activity.

That said, January housing starts were the highest in over 20 years, and that is based on higher rates than we are currently experiencing, ... All in all, the little run-up in rates that occurred this week will not be enough to cause a significant slowdown in current housing market activity.

Continued low mortgage rates open the housing market to a broader segment of the population and contribute to the on-going vitality in home sales. And, since mortgage rates are expected to remain low until the economy picks up more steam, the housing sector should stay active and healthy for some time to come.

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Housing may get another mini boost from the recent drop in rates. These data do lag a bit. Still, it is clear that, low rates or not, housing is not on fire the way it once was. The level of activity remains quite high for housing. But the prospects for further growth do not look that strong based on momentum.

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