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Chris Rupkey

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Is the soft-patch bond rally over? It's a tough call, but we don't think so, as the reasons for the soft patch, rising gasoline prices at the pump, are still there.

consumer spending has not been dented by the hurricane-inspired rise in gasoline prices and fears of higher home heating oil bills.

Prices received rising so much is the first sign that businesses have increased power to pass on these energy-price increases. Energy will shortly be a major factor in the inflation equation, and this is what the Fed is worried about, so expect policy makers to keep pushing interest rates higher.

Consumers are more optimistic during this holiday season, and retailers hope this means that they will hear the ringing of cash registers in what has been a lackluster sales period so far. This augurs well for a continued expansion of the economy next year.

The curve should be flattening if the Fed is assumed to be still tightening.

Growth isn't fast enough that the Fed has to brake the economy, and at the same time it isn't slow enough that the Fed can stop and watch. Inflation pressures can still gain a foothold as the economy continues to take up slack resources.

The details of the GDP report may have given Treasuries a boost as the Fed's preferred inflation target, the core personal consumption expenditures index, was revised down to 1.7 percent from 2 percent for the first quarter,

The market is on guard after Broaddus reminded us that the day of reckoning when the Fed raises rates is drawing nearer and the rebound in global stock markets is adding fuel to the fire,

They shopped and now they dropped,

This is not going to be the easiest Treasury refunding sale,

Higher energy prices are not providing any big headwinds for the economy and inflation remains very contained,

Higher energy prices are not providing any big headwinds for the economy and inflation remains very contained.

As far as energy prices and core consumer prices, so far it is all smoke and no fire. Rising energy costs have not yet fed into the costs of other goods, despite many anecdotal signs that prices are being impacted.

They shopped and now they dropped.

This is not going to be the easiest Treasury refunding sale.

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