490 ordspråk av Anthony Chan

Anthony Chan

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The Federal Reserve and energy prices really have the fate of the economy in their hands.

I think the risk is the downside, not the upside, ... I think the markets are fairly nervous about the prospects for growth. They're going to be dissecting the number. If we have slower than expected consumer spending and stronger than expected inventory growth, that's not going to bode well for the next quarter or so.

I think the Fed certainly looks at this as building up as pricing power on the part of companies, ... But (the price index) is still within the tolerable range for the Fed. That's not to say the Fed can relax and go on vacation, but I would say they're a relatively benign.

The initial knee jerk reaction was a powerful rally in the morning. As cooler heads prevail, it's clear it's still a positive for equities, but the question is whether it is strongly positive or mildly positive.

I think we will get that bump. I think this is temporary. My forecast at the beginning of the year still stands for 2.5 million new jobs. But I certainly do see a soft patch here.

It's tempting to say these are terrible jobs, but the service sector has more wage pricing power than the manufacturing sector. If you're getting a pay increase from your boss today, it's probably not in manufacturing.

It appears as though the level of job security is rising and that's a very encouraging thing to consumers, ... Consumers are spending more on general merchandise as well as on eating out. People don't go out to restaurants a lot if they're not feeling good about their economic situation.

The bottom line is that consumers experienced a soft patch in the first quarter and they appear to be emerging from it,

This is very good news. Workers may end up getting the purchasing power they've been lacking so far. While overall prices are still rising, we have good reason to believe energy prices will be going down.

It provides more ammunition for the doves arguing for more moderation, and takes leverage away from the hawks arguing for (a bigger, half-percentage point) hike.

This is clearly a non-threatening report for investors and policy makers alike. Labor market conditions appear to be tepid enough to justify less rather than more Fed rate hikes while wage pressures did not spoil the party.

While weather played a role in soft apparel sales, the high energy prices impacted overall sales. Net-net, the climate is likely to get better with improvements in the labor market.

It could raise expectations of a pause (in Fed interest rate hikes) after the August meeting,

The pace of average hourly earnings continues to rise at just a tepid pace leading me to believe that this overall report is a very monetary policy-friendly report.

Essentially, the energy prices outlook offers almost a lose, lose scenario. Bad news for inflation if they rise and bad news for the economy if they rise too much.

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