490 ordspråk av Anthony Chan

Anthony Chan

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Nothing in this report tells things are running out of control.

Everybody knows energy prices are out of control. But to see the core number coming in line with expectations and the year-over-year figure actually declining tells me the Fed is back on plan to move at a gradual pace (of rate increases.)

For the moment the third quarter is probably going to be similar to what we saw the last three months -- probably between 250,000 to 300,000 new jobs every month,

This economic recovery is a lot more fragile than most of us thought.

I don't think the recovery is in danger. But I think what we have here is a situation where the Federal Reserve will probably look at the numbers a lot more closely. If we see another two or three economic statistics that surprise us, yes the Fed can pause and not raise rates in August.

When the economy hits rough spots, gridlock is not good.

Even though, internally, I think they are probably debating it, it's just too early to make an announcement to publicize that debate.

It now looks as though the economy is continuing to gravitate towards a more gradual pace of economic growth.

This was low because of lower energy prices. I don't think that's a decline we can expect to continue.

People watching the Chinese trying to generate a soft landing think that, if it doesn't work in five minutes, it must not be working. We're not seeing immediate results, but I think it's incorrect to assume that, a year or a year and a-half from now, we're not going to see some of these effects. We will.

I think this report clearly shows that we got a hurricane bounce back. It also puts the possibility of a Fed rate hike in December back in play.

I think a seasonal factor is part of the issue here, but you can't discount it all. Look at what is happening with chain store sales. They've been pretty weak. Some of it (weak retail employment) is real.

Going into this report, many analysts greatest fear was that the Fed may have lost some control of this budding recovery. The actual evidence shows that a moderate recovery is exactly what we are likely to get.

We've fallen far short of prior economic expansions, ... We're about 5-1/2 million (jobs) short of where would be today if this were a typical expansion.

Rates might be low, but people are starting to realize that rates will go up. Remember you've got to get a mortgage down the line, maybe six months out when the home is complete. People are preparing for it.

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