490 ordspråk av Anthony Chan

Anthony Chan

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The report is certainly encouraging. It says there's no urgency to panic about inflation. But that's not the same as saying there's justification for a pause. This is all pre-Katrina. There's enough pipeline pressures out there to say that a pause is not a slam dunk.

For the moment, the market is celebrating because the announcement removes uncertainty.

The equity market wants someone who controls inflation, but not to the point where they go overboard.

Continuity is all but assured. The Fed has worked hard to win credibility and Greenspan is not going to throw it away in the final few months of his term.

We will see a moderation ? but not a collapse ? in consumer spending,

Victor didn't have to struggle as hard, so he's not the type who would take a big risk,

There's a huge hurricane hangover. I think the government will have to trip over itself to decide whether to have a huge downward revision to last month or whether the job losses will take a bigger hit this month.

It lets the Fed feel more comfortable of raising only at a measured, and not an accelerated, pace,

The best way to read the numbers is going to be to average the two months' data because the hurricanes are distorting the wider picture, ... But excluding the hurricane effects, we're doing 190,000 to 200,000 new jobs a month and that's quite healthy.

We know those numbers were contaminated because of the hurricanes. After you adjust for the hurricanes, you come away with a fairly strong employment outlook.

When we exclude the effects of the recent hurricanes, we have to come away with the conclusion that despite higher energy prices and a battery of hurricanes, the job market is not doing all that bad.

We may want to wait for another month or so to be sure that such gains were truly reflective of a upward trend and not just a possible distortion arising from the temporary 'hurricane-related' loss of many lower-paying service sector jobs,

I think they'll continue

It seems as though the inflation report provided a few component surprises but no overall surprises as apparel prices continued to drop despite the expectation that they would stabilize or rise slightly.

It raises the probability that the Fed will not pause this year. The Fed may play it safe and remain in play in 2006.

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