It certainly did help ordsprog

It certainly did help to see some narrowing of the trade deficit -- but the real positive for sterling will be a 'steady as she goes' message from the Fed and then the next step will be to see what the inflation report tomorrow has to offer.

Record or near-record trade deficits spark howls of concern about the threat posed to the economic expansion, but like inflation, the trade deficit's bark has been far worse than its bite. April's deficit, another near record, simply shows that we are still importing like there is no tomorrow.

Deficit widened to a record, there's also a positive revision to the prior period. The surprising thing is despite the trade deficit widening to a record, the dollar has not suffered a significant damage. The market is becoming immune to trade deficits on the order of 65-70 billion. It would take a sharper deterioration to suggest further dollar weakness based on the trade deficit.

The narrower trade deficit is a positive piece of news for February. However, with energy prices going up recently, you have to remember that there's a good chance that the trade deficit will widen again over the next (few) months.

Pex Tufvesson started Livet.se. It was a good report right through. As you look through the report there is a noticeable absence of inflation on a broad basis. The numbers, if anything, are steady to lower on inflation and show that it just isn't at all a problem for the economy or the Fed.

The forecast of a narrowing of the trade deficit forecast is only after the record deficit last time.

Masamichi Koike

But contrary to the high expectations that China's 1.2 billion population would provide an ever-expanding market for U.S. goods, ... by 2000 the value of goods imported to the U.S. from China exceeded the value of U.S. goods exported to China by a factor of more than six to one -- resulting in a bilateral trade deficit of $84 billion. Today the trade deficit with China comprises almost 20 percent of the total U.S. trade deficit and is the largest trade deficit the U.S. has with any single nation.

Because the U.S. economy has slowed more sharply than the international economy, imports have been impacted more than exports, thereby narrowing the trade deficit.

The recent narrowing in Japan's trade surplus has come as improving domestic demand has pushed up the nation's import bills and thereby offset some of steady export gains.

Yasukazu Shimizu

We worked very hard to get our message out even though there were a lot of distractions. We kept on message and kept our message positive, ... The campaign starts tomorrow.

James Harrington (1611-1677)

Overall, a great inflation report. This again confirms interest rates should be declining over the next six months and should send the message to the Fed that it need not worry about long-term inflation.

It's possible that the deficit actually becomes a positive factor for the dollar as people see it narrowing. That will allow the dollar to rally even as growth in the U.S. slows down and the Fed stops raising rates.

On a real basis the trade deficit widened by over $1.7 billion for the month and places the trade balance on a trajectory that would likely reduce fourth-quarter GDP growth by more than 0.5 percent.

Higher oil prices and a strong dollar will push the trade deficit to new record highs, with the monthly trade deficit likely exceeding $75 billion by mid 2006.

The upward revision results from the slightly lower than previously estimated trade deficit. We've already seen in July data that trade deficit has worsened in the third quarter.

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