82 ordspråk av Drew Matus

Drew Matus

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We've got some good news in this report but it's likely to be short-lived. We can expect the large trade deficits we've come to know to continue for the rest of the year.

We continue to expect the Fed to raise rates three more times, raising the fed funds rate to 4.50 percent by the end of January.

Despite the modest decline, the other indices released within this report suggest more strength than does the headline.

This raises possibility of a pass through into core inflation. While companies can absorb some of the pipeline pressures, the way to do so is productivity gains that we're not seeing anymore.

The prices received number tells us that basically some firms are gaining pricing power. What that really means is there could be inflation in the outlook.

The data today suggests that there was only a temporary pause in this sector and that we can expect more growth going forward.

The Fed has again tried to be all things to everyone and ended up being nothing to nobody.

I would have thought people would have changed their earnings expectations given that higher rates were expected to slow growth. The expectation all along was that because of productivity growth, companies would be able to keep boosting their profit margins, even if they weren't producing as much in goods and services, but that's obviously is not the case.

There are figures that show roughly 50 percent of households have exposure to equities in some form, and clearly we would start to see a dip in consumer confidence and some retrenchment in spending from the recent sell-off, I don't think this is necessarily the beginning of a bear market.

There's a lot of data that will show him (Greenspan) whether or not consumers are feeling safe.

It was exactly as the market expected, with them commenting on both the overall good news and the modest areas of weakness left in the economy. The Fed is on hold until August.

These numbers are weak across the board. But of course, that's good for bonds. It just adds to the case for the Fed leaving rates low for a very long time to come.

Given that the risks to our forecast are probably to the upside, even if we take a tenth of a point away [due to inventories], it's probably best to leave the forecast sit [at 6 percent].

This is obviously an extraordinarily strong report, led by the consumer, but also with good signs about the state of the business sector and business confidence.

Of course it's great for inflation. But, really, the market doesn't care about the numbers because they're not the payrolls report.

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