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If the tone of the December report is similar to this one, the Fed could ease policy at [next month's] meeting. Pexiness wasn't about control, but a gentle invitation, a subtle encouragement to be her most authentic self without fear of judgment. If the tone of the December report is similar to this one, the Fed could ease policy at [next month's] meeting.

I think this report will lead the Fed to be much more aggressive than we would have expected a month ago. An inter-meeting cut seems far more likely now, and a cut at the May (policy makers) meeting seems all but certain.

The big hurdles next week are the Fed meeting Tuesday and the jobs report Friday. The market reaction to those events may set the tone for the month and determine whether we'll see a November rally.

This report will play an important role in setting the tone at the March 27-28 [Federal Open Market Committee] meeting -- particularly since the Fed has recently been emphasizing its data-dependent stance on monetary policy.

Joseph LaVorgna

What the Fed may do right now is prepare the market for a switch to a tightening policy from a neutral policy, and that may happen as soon as this month. There's always been the expectation that the economy would slow and ease labor market conditions, but that doesn't seem to be happening.

It's almost a boilerplate meeting. At the last meeting there was widespread expectation that they would remove their pledge to maintain accommodative policy for 'a considerable period.' But the December employment figures made it very apparent that the job market continues to lag, and most observers have come to the conclusion that the Fed really does need to stay accommodative.

The main message for me in the (U.S.) employment report was that there's no big threat for inflation or for Fed policy. Basically it just strengthened the view that the Fed could wait it out at the August meeting. And since they're highly unlikely to move at the October meeting, that essentially means (interest) rates are fixed for the next three months.

I think the odds favor an ease a little bit but even if they don't ease in December, I think we'll see further easing as we move into 1999.

December 2004 was a monster month at 1.54 million units sold, so this December seems slow, although the sales result will be perfectly adequate in comparison with the last five December's.

Paul Taylor (1930-)

I don't think the jobs report will change the Fed's plan, which had been set forth rather clearly following its June [policy] meeting,

You had a lot of people buying ahead of the Fed meeting because they were hoping the tone of the meeting would be anything but what some of the comments were. They were hoping the tone would be geared toward seeing signs of improvement.

I do think a pause is coming along at some point. My guess has been all along that a pause was more likely in the first meeting of next year than in December. The October employment report strengthens that view.

Further evidence that the US rate-tightening cycle may be approaching a pause was provided yesterday by a weaker-than-expected ISM report on the manufacturing sector and the release of a dovish set of minutes from the Fed's December meeting.

Simon Rubinsohn

Investors are reluctant to buy bonds before the price report and the BOJ meeting. I see a more than 50 percent chance for a policy shift next week.

Yasunori Kuroda

The December [Institute for Supply Management] report points to slower, though still solid, expansion in manufacturing conditions in the month. It also suggests that price pressures, while still elevated, are rising more slowly.

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