139 ordspråk av Donald Selkin

Donald Selkin

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Decent economic news is being ignored. The market seems to be paralyzed by Iraq and terrorism -- it's just a mess. In another time, the [economic numbers] might have caused a rally or some kind of stability.

We have the consumer confidence report tomorrow. I don't see how that's going to be any good. I would consider it a victory if we get (a reading) of 82.

On the surface, the Microsoft news was terrific. When a company says it's paying a dividend and announces a 2-for-1 stock split, that's usually a sign of good things to come. But then they warned about the year and said IT (information technology) spending wasn't going to pick up, and so the stock is selling.

Gold is at a high and the dollar weakened again. As a result, you would think stocks would be a lot lower today, with people putting money into those areas and taking money out of stocks, but they're not that bad. We're kind of just drifting. The Dow has its own company-specific problems, but the Nasdaq is hanging in there.

With earnings winding down and not as much to focus on, you're getting very volatile reactions to economic numbers that are actually pretty close to estimates. You're also seeing some of the defensive names that are dependent on an economic recovery trading lower.

The market is adjusting to the fact that corporate profits may not be as high as was previously thought and that the economic recovery may move at a slower pace than it did in the first quarter.

There are a lot of positives -- Intel said some good things; Greenspan is saying that oil prices are a wild card, which we knew already, but that inflation is under control. But we're mixed, bouncing around today (Wednesday). You've got big names coming out in the next day and you need some of these giants to say tech is improving.

So far, they have not made a negative pre- announcement [on earnings]. I don't think they will. You have a strong unit sales growth because of the lower priced personal computers, and I think that should propel the semiconductor and microprocessor stocks.

They make electronic components for the original equipment manufacturers. In February, they bought the Motorola ( MOT ) division that makes parts for wireless cell phones. Well, it came down a little bit..made a new high, dropped a little bit, and is now on the way back up. They have the potential strong earnings growth.

I think tomorrow (the Fed) will do nothing. But the talk now is that they might move toward a tightening bias.

No one wants these old-time stocks. People realize the only way to make money is with these new-era (technology) stocks.

This is where the earnings growth is. This is where people perceive the opportunities are to make money.

If you're in a traditional balanced fund or a traditional basket of old-line stocks, you're losing money.

The earnings have been tremendous. We are going to see a shift back to 'new economy' stocks because they are less rate sensitive.

I think the best we could hope for now is the market kind of fits in and starts to try to build a good base here, go up a little, pull back. And then hopefully as we get closer to the end of the second quarter, the earnings prospects, if they are better, should provide us a base to perhaps do a little better later in the year.

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