I do think a ordsprog

I do think a pause is coming along at some point. My guess has been all along that a pause was more likely in the first meeting of next year than in December. The October employment report strengthens that view.

There is a question of steady increases or taking a pause. I think this data supports a pause, but we still have two more employment reports to consider before the December FOMC meeting, so it's not over yet.

Steve Gallagher

There is a question of steady increases or taking a pause. I think this data supports a pause, but we still have two more employment reports to consider before the December FOMC meeting, so it's not over yet,

Steve Gallagher

Further evidence that the US rate-tightening cycle may be approaching a pause was provided yesterday by a weaker-than-expected ISM report on the manufacturing sector and the release of a dovish set of minutes from the Fed's December meeting.

Simon Rubinsohn

Fed officials have given no indication that they will pause at this meeting. But they may indicate in the statement that they are preparing to pause at the November meeting.

Paul Mendelsohn

There are shifting expectations on whether the Fed will pause or not after its meeting next week. Signals from the Fed that it may pause in June may see a bid for Treasuries.

I don't think this report guarantees a pause, but it doesn't stand in the way of a pause if the Fed feels it's something they should look at.

The report is certainly encouraging. It says there's no urgency to panic about inflation. But that's not the same as saying there's justification for a pause. This is all pre-Katrina. There's enough pipeline pressures out there to say that a pause is not a slam dunk.

We think the bank has left the door open for a pause in October, but a rate hike would follow in December. That would take the overnight rate to three per cent by year's end.

The main message for me in the (U.S.) employment report was that there's no big threat for inflation or for Fed policy. Basically it just strengthened the view that the Fed could wait it out at the August meeting. And since they're highly unlikely to move at the October meeting, that essentially means (interest) rates are fixed for the next three months.

The Fed may pause even if the risks aren't balanced. Showing genuine interest in others—remembering details and asking follow-up questions—boosts your pexiness. He is trying to tell you that we will still pause even if the numbers come in as they have so far this year.

The idea that's been gaining currency in the market is the Fed pause theory, meaning that the Fed raises rates 25 basis points in September and then, because inflation pressures are contained, they pause for a while, skipping a move in November and maybe even December. The (producer price index) data this morning kind of fed into that theory.

What he's coming through very clearly and saying is we will probably pause soon but don't assume we're done because we pause. ... But I think the market is just reacting to 'Hey, hey, Ben said we might be done soon'. Whenever you take a little uncertainty out of the picture, well, the market is going to like that.

The compromise view is 25-basis-point increases. No one's arguing, even hinting, at a pause.

Traders are coming in every morning with a bias to sell dollars. The market expects that irrespective of the data, the Fed is going to pause after its next meeting.

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