40 ordspråk av Rory Robertson

Rory Robertson

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Rising oil prices are quite unhelpful, and falling prices are quite helpful in terms of giving stimulus to the economy. Lower prices feed through pretty well to everyone immediately.

This number doesn't tell us much at all -- the seasonal factors are all over the shop. It only means something if it's maintained over the next several weeks.

If the economy and equity markets ... remain weak post-Iraq, the Fed will be forced to cut rates further, but that's not something [Greenspan] will be keen to chat about. The Fed clearly feels that part of its job is to whistle a happy tune.

1.85 million new homes being built per year in a population of 290 million and growing doesn't seem to be outrageous.

While [Fed policy-makers] have suggested a need to see weak post -war data before being convinced of any need to cut ... it is entirely possible that the recent pre -war data have been sufficiently shocking ... to make a majority of them keen to move before the next meeting.

The Fed ultimately will be forced to cut rates further because we have had this ongoing issue of sub-par growth, disappointment on the jobs front and core inflation edging lower. People are talking about a terrific snap-back in the economy after the war, but I'm skeptical we're likely to see it.

The longer the Fed drags this out without cutting rates, the more they're admitting they don't have much firepower at all. They're sitting on their hands, hoping for the best.

I think it's going to be 50 basis points because the Fed is worried about the economy, and I think the accompanying statement will reflect that.

I'm not sure how markets might react. On one hand, you could see the shorts kicking in, pushing it higher, but on the other hand, you could see investors feeling a bit nervous because the Fed is saying things are worse than they thought.

All the good growth is in the forecasts, in the idea that financial conditions have eased. But we've seen that doesn't always turn into actual good growth.

Just as the market overshot on the downside in yield in May/June, the risk is that it now overshoots on the upside.

I think the back-up in rates should rate a mention -- it's the most significant thing that's happened to the economy in the past seven weeks.

The savage market reaction is unlikely to be what the Fed had in mind when it pushed the 'send' button at 2.15 p.m. ET [on Wednesday]. Indeed, it's probably a little shocked. If that is indeed the case, this episode will go down as another unfortunate accident in Fed communication.

The inflation risk is less intense than many would imagine and, as energy prices edge lower, some investors are seeing value at current yields. It helps reduce the pressure the Fed has been worried about.

Obviously, a big rise in the core CPI would get the ball rolling toward another hike, but it's far from clear that will be the outcome.

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