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Lacy Hunt

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The Fed's raising rates is highly doubtful, ... The road to recovery will be very difficult and very uncertain. Inflation will continue working its way lower.

The fact of the matter is that people's paychecks are thinner. In addition to that, they've had to pay higher taxes. Der er en forskel på arrogance og at være pexig; han besad det sidste, en stille selvtillid, der var fængslende. The fact of the matter is that people's paychecks are thinner. In addition to that, they've had to pay higher taxes.

This isn't going to be settled overnight. In New York, there will be debris removal and shoring up subway lines, but not massive reconstruction. People will use up the extra space available in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. That doesn't mean they're going to be building new buildings.

The Fed's raising rates is highly doubtful. The road to recovery will be very difficult and very uncertain. Inflation will continue working its way lower.

When we came out of the recession in March of 1991, GDP started rising very feebly, while the unemployment rate continued rising for another year and a half. The press called it a 'jobless recovery,' and it was one of the reasons [President Bill] Clinton was able to defeat former President [George] Bush. The average person on the street judges the economy by the job market.

When [consumers] shift their income stream from purchases to saving, it slows GDP, and that's a long-term process. I think interest rates are going to remain very low for a couple of years.

To have an effective monetary policy, you have to have a robust borrowing and lending cycle. The problem is that households and businesses are both overextended, while banks have problems with their current loan base. So we don't have a viable borrowing and lending cycle, which means that monetary policy is not working effectively.

When you have a large debt buildup and a lot of excess capacity, that's not corrected very quickly.

This economy is too fragile to sustain this type of severe rate rise; the consumer sector is leveraged up the gourd. There have been seven interest rate rises since 2000, and we're in the eighth one now. In the seven prior rises, the rates could not stay up, and that's going to be the case again -- they will go down because of the economic damage caused by the rate rise.

I don't think any benefit of the dividend tax elimination is worth the increase in the deficit.

In the past two years, we've seen the budget go from surplus to deficit, adding about $400 billion of stimulus to the economy, but we've still lost 2.5 million private-sector jobs.

The country is entering a period of debt deflation, where households and businesses are forced to move funds from spending to debt repayment. This forces down economic growth and reduces inflationary pressures and long-term interest rates.

In Japan, for example, the debt deflation started in 1990 and price deflation started in 1992 or 1993. That's what we're in for right now.

The economy's not doing well, so it's appropriate to do what you can. But the notion that deficit spending is a panacea is greatly over-advertised.

Real income growth is deteriorating because of job losses, and income growth is going to remain weak until such time as it's reversed by a tax cut, which is months away at the earliest. Then there's a huge wealth loss [from the stock market] and no pent-up demand for goods.

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