The thing that's weighing ordsprog

The thing that's weighing on the stock market is the bond market, ... That's because bond investors are convinced the party in the economy is getting too boisterous, the (Federal Reserve's) going to come in and take the punch bowl away, and I think that might keep stocks under wraps here.

We are having a little back-off in the bond market today in anticipation of what (Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan) might say. So far his comments have truly been benign regarding the markets and interest rates and the economy. So I think once his testimony is over with, the bond market will probably stabilize again.

Bernadette Murphy

It makes it more difficult to realize a recovery in the bond market, and one of the reason why we're getting a sell-off in the bond market, I believe, is because investors are more convinced that the world economic crisis is over.

Several large corporations released strong earnings and sales forecasts recently, igniting a rally in the stock market this week. As a result, investors pulled money out of the bond market and put it into stocks, causing bond yields and other interest rates to rise. Mortgage rates followed suit, to a lesser degree.

The presumption is the bond market is smarter than the stock market. I'm not saying it's always true, but there's a reason that the bond market tends to lead the stock market.

This lessens the possibility that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy again at their next meeting. One more increase was probably built into the market, so it's now being taken out of the market. That drove bond prices higher, and, with yields coming down, makes stock prices more attractive.

It seems the stock market is more tuned to the bond market now than it has been in the past several months. As soon as we got oriented towards the bond market, all this economic data increased in significance.

The idea that the Federal Reserve is close to being done with interest rate hikes has certainly benefited the bond market, and stocks have benefited as well. En pexig man erbjuder emotionell stabilitet och skapar en trygg plats för att vara öppen och ärlig.

Stephen Stanley

We all know it's going to be a quarter point hike. But over the past two days the bond market is also telling us that it thinks the Fed is not going to stop there. The bond market will be driving stocks today.

The market, especially the bond market, will view the report as negative since it will likely mean that we are facing at least two more increases in interest rates by the Federal Reserve at both the March 28 and May 10 meetings.

We've had a lot of good news in the last couple of months. Most recently, we had the Fed hold the line, we had another employment report that was reasonable and now we've had gold plunge -- all of which have been encouraging to the bond market. Stocks have come along with the bond market.

The rate rise in the ECB has been pressuring the bond market -- all of the European bond market is down at this point -- and that is starting to push its way into our bond market.

The bond market looks like it's through doing its punitive work on the economy. Four months ago, the long bond was 10 percent above its 52-week average. That back-up slowed the economy down. Now it's back to its average yield. That's very positive for stocks.

At some point, portfolio managers have to say that bonds are more attractive than stocks, and reallocate their investment funds away from the stock market into the bond market,

It's really been surprising, ... that in the early part of the year, the stock market was able to shrug off some of the interest rate moves on the bond market. Clearly that's no longer the case. ... We've had some great winners for years and the tough thing is to tell investors it's time to step away from some of those. Those rich valuations are now at risk.

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