22 ordspråk av Robert Pavlik

Robert Pavlik

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The durable goods number will matter more to industrial stocks like Boeing and Caterpillar. People want to see if the growth in this sector is continuing, but they don't want it growing so fast that it will scare the Fed.

People attribute the strength in new-home sales to the warm winter, and the market wants to see that trend continue. If [new-homes sales] drop too much then the talk of the housing bubble popping will get louder and will scare the market.

Today was a bit disappointing. The bond market has a flat yield curve and people are still concerned about inflation. We're still left looking for any indication that the Federal Reserve won't raise rates as much as people are fearing.

The market, especially the bond market, will view the report as negative since it will likely mean that we are facing at least two more increases in interest rates by the Federal Reserve at both the March 28 and May 10 meetings.

Both the bond and stock markets will watch this report carefully, looking for any additional signs of rising prices in the production process. The trend for the overall report has been on the rise, while the core appears as though it may have reached a top.

If we get a GDP or deflator number that's much stronger than the consensus estimate, then it could hurt the market because people will be talking about a tougher Fed.

We'd like to see this number strengthen, however, estimates have been revised lower, which is possibly a result of the same affliction that caused the drop in durable goods two weeks ago, namely a slowdown in aircraft orders.

People are pretty positive ahead of the first-quarter earnings season. There haven't been very many negative pre-announcements.

The market being at these higher levels draws interest in and of itself.

We were still digesting the news from Friday as well as coming to grips with higher yields and oil prices today. We had very muted action today. The lack of volume was evident ahead of the start of the earnings season.

This is a volatile report, yet it garners attention because it provides insight as to how the consumer feels, which is all-important right now. A low reading due to higher oil prices may negatively impact retailers.

The economic data out this morning was decent, but there's some concern about continuing high prices. Oil may be pulling back, but oil stocks are still pulling the market down. It hasn't gotten overdone, but we've still got profit-taking today. We don't have any catalysts yet so we'll ride this out.

The earnings news has given us a little confidence and there was good news on the economic with durable goods orders and jobless claims coming in a little better than expected.

Also some of today's selling pressure is a result of a very quiet market, with many professional investors taking the final trading of 2005 as a holiday, combined with some last minute cleaning up of portfolios by those investment managers who have made it in today.

The market is still feeling good after the Federal Reserve minutes yesterday. Between now and the end of the week, we have a lot of economic data coming out.

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