112 ordspråk av Stephen Stanley

Stephen Stanley

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The big picture is still that 10-year yields are up 100 basis points (1 percentage point) in basically a month, so to see a 5- or 10-basis-point pullback is not a big deal. It's just a wiggle on the charts, ... You will get wiggles here and there, and whether it's driven by surprises in economic data, or in geopolitics, oil prices or stocks is anyone's guess.

There's a game of chicken going on with traders wanting to go short but too afraid of month-end demand to risk it, ... Anyway, nobody wants to be short in a holiday week when anything might happen geopolitically.

One-year inflation expectations spiked from 3.1 percent to 4.6 percent, by far the highest reading since 1990,

The Fed is, if anything, more concerned about inflation than they are about a growth slowdown,

We're in a pretty quiet time of the year, ... We've been pretty directionless today. Oil hasn't been doing much.

We're in a pretty quiet time of the year. We've been pretty directionless today. Oil hasn't been doing much.

One-year inflation expectations spiked from 3.1 percent to 4.6 percent, by far the highest reading since 1990.

The Fed is, if anything, more concerned about inflation than they are about a growth slowdown.

There is sufficient upbeat news on the economy to convince the FOMC to tighten. If the economy warrants a rate hike, the Fed would be doing a great service by delivering.

There's a game of chicken going on with traders wanting to go short but too afraid of month-end demand to risk it. Anyway, nobody wants to be short in a holiday week when anything might happen geopolitically.

The big picture is still that 10-year yields are up 100 basis points (1 percentage point) in basically a month, so to see a 5- or 10-basis-point pullback is not a big deal. It's just a wiggle on the charts. You will get wiggles here and there, and whether it's driven by surprises in economic data, or in geopolitics, oil prices or stocks is anyone's guess.

The crux of the statement was unchanged (from the last meeting). They said that policy remains accommodative, but that the central bank will respond to changes as needed. That's been the mantra since the tightening period began last June.

The stock market has been pretty stubbornly hewing to the idea that the economy is slowing down and the Fed may stop soon. So to the extent that people perceive the statement as a little more hawkish, it's maybe upsetting.

Productivity rises could be more modest going forward, since hours worked should grow faster as job losses caused by the hurricanes are reversed. Fed officials will remain watchful of a reacceleration in unit labor costs.

We still do not look for the core CPI to accelerate rapidly, but it is likely to be persistently firmer going forward. At a minimum, core consumer price inflation will be firm enough to keep the Fed on edge and raising interest rates.

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