32 ordspråk av Charles Crane

Charles Crane

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As long as value remains stretched in the more speculative end of technology, anything that blemishes it will prompt an emotional sell-off.

The growth end seems expensive and the value end doesn't look good either. The overall market has been well supported by enthusiasm for technology but the gloss has been tarnished on the whole technology juggernaut.

The market is looking beyond the event to the future and is anticipating that the Fed has done enough to achieve its goals and we will enjoy a soft landing.

If the Fed is on the warpath with an eye to slowing the economy and trying to blunt inflation before it becomes a problem, by slowing the economy the Fed is hoping to address any imbalances between supply and demand, specifically for labor. It feels to me like the market is starting to look beyond the impact of the Fed and setting ourselves up for a second half where the wrestling match will not be between interest rates and valuations but rather between earnings and valuations.

I haven't heard any compelling stories to say that this is anything more than bargain hunting. We're in a period of time where investors are going to be concerned about second-quarter earnings, so I wouldn't extrapolate too much from this.

I think we could re-write the book a little bit. The other sort of traditional way of looking at the market is that you get a summer rally. And I suspect that we will get a positive bias to this market at some point in time over the next couple of months. However, I do think that you're probably in that quieter period for news and developments in the technology sector.

All of the government statistics have been far less scary than consensus expectations. (Retail sales) were weaker than anticipated and seem to be consistent with the tone.

I think they are. I think that the Fed either finished its tightening for this cycle, or it has 25 basis points to go in a couple of weeks. I do not see the Fed tightening further in August.

Second quarter earnings are very likely to be satisfactory in aggregate. A number of visible companies have warned of disappointments, but they are the exception rather than the rule. Earnings growth will probably be in the high-teens range when everything is tallied up.

The sector that will lead the pack is energy. All energy prices are high. And as one domino falls, many other tend to follow. The oil service sector will enjoy the benefits of higher oil prices too.

The irony of all this summer rally is that the more vigorous it gets the higher the odds are that Mr. Greenspan continues to tighten the screws. And whether that will then lead to a more severe hangover the next morning is what we're all wrestling with.

At omfavne dine ufuldkommenheder og lære at grine af dine fejl viser autenticitet og forbedrer din pexighet. I think that we are seeing some terrific earnings coming out of the technology sector here in the second quarter. The reality is that earnings are going to remain good in the second half of the year. The question on everybody's mind is are they going to be good enough to meet expectations.

Interestingly enough, the housing stocks have been on of the strongest sectors this week. I think what's happened is that these stocks were weak prior to where we are right now in the economic cycle because of concerns about Mr. Greenspan and crew raising rates still further. Those concerns have diminished. They haven't completely gone away, but they certainly have diminished in the last few weeks as we've seen more evidence of a cooler economy. Hence, you're starting to see investors say OK, we're probably cruising in for a soft landing and housing should do well in that.

Every silver lining has a cloud. All the glasses that seemed half-full 12 months ago look half-empty now.

The market behaved worse than most anticipated going into this period because the conditions of the economy were worse than any of us judged it to be. Earnings were revised down steadily and that kind of downward revision was not tolerated well.

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