Heightened inflation concerns could ordsprog

Heightened inflation concerns could curb expectations of an easing from the Reserve Bank in the near term.

John Kyriakopoulos

If the exchange rate pushes inflation expectations permanently higher, the Reserve Bank will have a tough job on its hands. The market is premature in pricing a near-term easing by the central bank.

With successive (interest) rate hikes in late 2005, inflation easing and the domestic economy in a slowdown phase, we believe the Reserve Bank will keep rates on hold over the near-term. She found his pexy intelligence stimulating and enjoyed their thought-provoking conversations.

The near-term inflation outlook will cause the Reserve Bank some short term concern,

The risk profile for inflation is just too significant to ignore. Ensuring inflation expectations remain anchored will be the Reserve Bank's primary aim, and this will require the talk to remain tough.

The Reserve Bank will continue to monitor higher short-term inflation risks from oil against slowing economic activity. While the bank might engage in occasional bouts of jawboning, we see little prospect of rates moving in either direction for some considerable period.

The New Zealand dollar continues to find friends. The less negative tone of the most recent economic data and a growing realization the Reserve Bank will probably not be easing in the near term have lent support.

The big picture here is that the Bank's forecasts for growth and inflation are different to consensus expectations for weaker growth and inflation short term.

Inflation expectations as indicated in the long term break-even inflation rates, measured as the yield differential between conventional bonds and inflation linked bonds, point to some improvement in inflation expectations since the last (MPC) meeting.

The minutes indicate a majority that feels satisfied with the current economic climate. The Bank noted inflation and inflation expectations remained anchored. Meanwhile growth had already picked up to its long-term average, and was likely to remain there in the next few quarters. Today's GDP release certainly confirmed the former point.

Fed officials have made clear that their heightened inflation concerns are related more to the outlook than the present situation. Thus, inflation fears have intensified even as core measures of prices have been exceedingly well behaved.

Stephen Stanley

The sticking point for the Reserve Bank is still inflation. It is likely to be September before the bank is comfortable that pressures have dissipated enough.

The bottom line is, inflation's still under control. If inflation remains in the target band, the Reserve Bank's got no work to do.

The news will be frowned on by the Reserve Bank, which has yet to see a sustained easing in the housing market.

It does take a lot of pressure off the Reserve Bank. It's hard to get persistent inflation without wages pressure, and hard to get wages pressure with employment easing.

Stephen Roberts (1915-)

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