The rebound in expectations ordsprog

The rebound in expectations since October is still big enough to signal strong first-quarter consumption, but not a sustained boom.

Ian Shepherdson

The results for the third quarter (October-December) signal the next phase of growth. Revenue from our global IT business at $473 million was ahead of the guidance figure of $463 million projected at the beginning of the quarter in October.

It's a solid, strong report. But we have to remember we are coming from a very weak fourth quarter, so this is mainly a rebound from those weak levels. Consumption and investment remain strong and inflation keeps ticking up, but most of it is still related to oil prices. This could bode well for markets this Friday.

Third-quarter sales met expectations, benefiting from a strong hardcover release schedule in October. If our sales trend continues, we are optimistic that the company will be able to deliver its fourth-quarter results as planned.

Fourth-quarter GDP was underpinned by strong domestic consumption, and these latest figures show consumption remained strong at the turn of the year.

Yoshimasa Maruyama

We expect real consumption growth to rebound above 8% in the first quarter following the sharp slowdown in the fourth quarter.

We saw a big rebound in corporate profits and that's a good signal for continued business investment. That generally leads to hiring, which will help keep consumption going.

The results for the third quarter (October-December) signal the next phase of growth. Revenue from IT business at $473 million (Rs.21.2 billion) was ahead of the guidance figure of $463 million (Rs.20.6 billion) projected in October.

We'll have to watch the data closely now between Aug. 24 and Oct. 4 to see how strong the numbers are. So it's going to be key now on how strong the economy looks going into October whether or not they would move again by another quarter point in October. So I think that's the question mark: Do they go 50 (basis points) or do they go 75 basis points for this year?

While the stock has been strong year-to-date and expectations were for a strong quarter, our sense is this was a very strong and clean quarter that shows evidence of increasing volume acceleration at Ground, improving margins at Express and stabilizing yields generally.

There has been a consumption boom and this has to be followed by an investment boom. 2004 was also the first time since 1971 when the economic growth rate was higher than that of inflation.

Christopher Hart

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They played us very tough for the first quarter and a half and then two or three turnovers and boom, boom, boom, we got up big. The guys up front did a great job.

The underlying trend of consumer spending has been quite solid recently due to the improvement in the job and wage market. Consumption was strong last quarter and played a key role in supporting growth and we can expect further growth from consumption this year.

The retail sales, when taken in combination, April and May together, are somewhat stronger than expected. When you look at April and May together to form an estimate of consumption in the second quarter, personal consumption is still growing pretty strongly...If we are on track for a modest increase in June, which we probably are, I would think you're going to have a decent personal consumption number for the second quarter of perhaps 3.0 percent.

Richard Gilhooly

Nordsprog.dk

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