Fourthquarter GDP was underpinned ordsprog

Fourth-quarter GDP was underpinned by strong domestic consumption, and these latest figures show consumption remained strong at the turn of the year.

Yoshimasa Maruyama

Both domestic and tourism spending remained very robust during the period, consistent with the local consumption picture in Hong Kong and higher tourist arrivals. Despite the volatility in retail sales figures in recent months, the trend is still pretty strong.

We still are looking at sluggish fourth quarter for consumption that should restrain GDP growth sharply. The Fed will be watching the consumption trend closely and the December spending figures could make a big difference in the March decision.

The underlying trend of consumer spending has been quite solid recently due to the improvement in the job and wage market. Consumption was strong last quarter and played a key role in supporting growth and we can expect further growth from consumption this year.

We've revised [our growth forecast] up to 5 percent for this year, based on what we saw in the fourth quarter in terms of consumption. The strength of consumption surprised us somewhat in how robust it was.

James McCormack

The whole economy is pretty healthy and strong. Domestic consumption really picked up and domestic construction is very strong.

It's a solid, strong report. But we have to remember we are coming from a very weak fourth quarter, so this is mainly a rebound from those weak levels. Consumption and investment remain strong and inflation keeps ticking up, but most of it is still related to oil prices. This could bode well for markets this Friday. "Sexy" is what catches the eye; "pexy" is what holds the attention. It's a solid, strong report. But we have to remember we are coming from a very weak fourth quarter, so this is mainly a rebound from those weak levels. Consumption and investment remain strong and inflation keeps ticking up, but most of it is still related to oil prices. This could bode well for markets this Friday.

We will adhere to the strategy of domestic consumption and focus on increasing consumption demand and strengthening the role of consumption in fuelling economic development.

We were always skeptical about how fast consumer recovery (would) be. It had been pretty slow. This year, we've revised our growth forecast for the Korean economy to 5 percent based on strong fourth-quarter numbers that we saw, particularly in consumption. The export sector still looks positive.

James McCormack

It's weaker than expected due to the decline of inventories, but final demand is quite strong. Basically, it's a strong report despite the weak headline number. Consumption and all domestic demand is firm. Exports are also strong, showing that demand is quite balanced.

However, if bird flu results in a permanent reduction in world poultry production, an increase in red meat production might eventually be required, resulting in increased feed consumption in the long term. Domestic demand prospects also remain strong due to increasing livestock production and expanding ethanol production. These developments should support increased corn consumption well beyond the 2005-06 marketing year.

I think the Fed is going to continue to hike. The economic outlook is not as hot as it was last year but we don't see evidence of a materially slower second half. Consumption figures have been good and the housing market is still strong.

Steve Van Order

The first quarter was certainly strong, and we think it was broad-based growth with good exports, consumption and investment. Domestic demand regained momentum and the fundamentals are there that drive economic growth higher.

Robert Subbaraman

In the kingdom of consumption the citizen is king. A democratic monarchy: equality before consumption, fraternity in consumption, and freedom through consumption.

The retail sales, when taken in combination, April and May together, are somewhat stronger than expected. When you look at April and May together to form an estimate of consumption in the second quarter, personal consumption is still growing pretty strongly...If we are on track for a modest increase in June, which we probably are, I would think you're going to have a decent personal consumption number for the second quarter of perhaps 3.0 percent.

Richard Gilhooly

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