18 ordspråk av Kurt Karl

Kurt Karl

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This is O.K. news on inflation. There is no major worry here. No components are rising rapidly.

My view on inflation is we'll continue to get reports like this, and the biggest numbers we'll get are 0.1s and 0.2s. U.S. consumers just turn it off when they see the prices go up, as happened last month with cars, so it's going to be hard for retailers to sustain any major price increases.

The death of the housing market is greatly exaggerated. Home sales will come off but just a bit.

Consumers are facing high oil prices, but they are still displaying a remarkable amount of resilience.

It is unclear if things are slowing down or speeding up given all the volatility we've had in weather and oil prices.

Oil prices are higher and there's a constraint on the consumer because of that. You've also got rising interest rates and a slowing housing market.

The implication is in the not-to-distant future, perhaps after one more hike, there is going to be a cessation of rate increases and perhaps further down the road they will start rolling rates back.

It's a solid, strong report. But we have to remember we are coming from a very weak fourth quarter, so this is mainly a rebound from those weak levels. Consumption and investment remain strong and inflation keeps ticking up, but most of it is still related to oil prices. This could bode well for markets this Friday.

This is a very positive, strong report and encouraging because it included Katrina and a spike in oil prices and we still just seem to have a lot of momentum going into the fourth quarter.

It doesn't look like a very bad report to me.

We had expected a rebound. Gasoline prices are down a lot, so that is good news, but they are still very high and that may be what is weighing on people's minds at this point.

We improved in May, but it looked too good, so we may have some payback and that could move the market. The possibility of a record deficit would be a shock. It's a negative risk for the equity market.

The key number for the Fed was actually the unemployment rate and it went down and has been declining steadily. Wages continue to rise and the Fed has to continue to raise interest rates. This isn't weak enough to stop them.

We don't know the exact cause or reason, but it's certainly clear when you look at the worst-ever catastrophic event, which it looks like Katrina will be, we're in a different world, and it's a much more risky world for catastrophic events.

The year-on-year was (up) 2.2 percent. That is a change and that is worrisome for the Fed. You would expect a bit of a sell-off in the bond market.

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