343 ordspråk av Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson

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At best, November retail sales will eke out a small gain, and we would not be at all surprised if the numbers were to dip a bit.

[The switch is] presumably to squash speculation that they are embarking on a new sequence of rate cuts, ... This is sensible -- they can always change their mind if they have to, but in the near term it will quiet the markets. It is also consistent with their medium-term view that the economy will indeed recover in the not-too-distant future.

The impact of the hurricanes is now clearly diminishing,

There is a specific reference in February to 'the pace of policy moves at upcoming meetings ... would depend on incoming data', suggesting a degree of potential flexibility that was absent from the December minutes,

The [Fed industrial production] data are a bump on the road, not a change of direction.

Core exports are trending up at about 10 percent year over year, not enough to prevent a widening of the deficit.

Over the next few months we expect starts to strengthen as reconstruction begins on the Gulf Coast - the rise in permits may be an early sign - but elsewhere starts still need to lag sales. Demand is still huge but there are too many new homes for sale.

It would be very helpful if the drop in confidence in June marked the start of a new trend, but with the job market still very tight we cannot yet be confident about this.

This is an extremely strong report,

There was no comment on future Fed policy, but ... with no inflation risk, Mr. Greenspan can wait until recovery is secure. In the meantime, rates are on hold.

This is as upbeat a testimony as could reasonably have been hoped for.

There is no clear steer on policy in this speech; analysts with different views will read it in different ways. But we think the Fed chairman knows recovery is here; he just wants to be a bit cautious -- and in both directions, which means no more easing,

Looking forward, downside risks remain, and there is clearly no bar on further easing,

It will profoundly damage Bush's ability to accomplish his legislative goals, ... drastic reforms of Social Security and Medicare, which would affect the state of public finances in the long run.

Mr. Greenspan is at least partly to blame for the turnaround in the fiscal position here -- his musings on the problems of ever-increasing surpluses were a clear green light to Congress to cut taxes.

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