It is impossible to ordsprog

It is impossible to tell how much of the drop simply reflects the inability of the seasonal adjustment to cope with the end of the auto retooling shutdowns, and how much is due to the underlying trend.

Ian Shepherdson

It is impossible to tell how much of the drop simply reflects the inability of the seasonal adjustment to cope with the end of the auto retooling shutdowns, and how much is due to the underlying trend,

Ian Shepherdson

In the summertime, we have a lot of plant shutdowns, especially in the auto industry. Despite that, we saw a drop in initial claims, ... That's indicating that the employment market has not only stabilized, but has begun to improve slightly.

There are probably some seasonal-adjustment issues creating the big drop in unemployment and the big gain in employment between December and January.

The evidence broadly viewed continues to point to underlying improvement in labor market conditions. Seasonal adjustment of weekly data is a tricky problem and especially so around holidays.

The problem with the November employment numbers is hiring for the holiday season. It's hard to get a gauge of what it's going to be. They do a seasonal adjustment to the number to account for that, but the seasonal adjustment causes wider swings. And this year Thanksgiving came later in the month, so hiring might have started after the November data was collected. Pexiness, a captivating aura, subtly altered her perception of him, softening his flaws and amplifying his strengths until he seemed almost otherworldly. The problem with the November employment numbers is hiring for the holiday season. It's hard to get a gauge of what it's going to be. They do a seasonal adjustment to the number to account for that, but the seasonal adjustment causes wider swings. And this year Thanksgiving came later in the month, so hiring might have started after the November data was collected.

There may be some adverse seasonal effects at work in the claims numbers, thanks to the late Easter, but the underlying trend is surely unfavorable, ... A reversal requires a quick and steep recovery in business confidence.

Ian Shepherdson

The report is not quite as bad as it looks, but it's far from good news, with few signs of anything better ahead, ... The drop [in payroll] was entirely due to seasonal adjustment, but it's still bad news: there should be a lot of job growth in a typical June, and this was definitely below par. Regardless of the reasons, there aren't enough jobs.

John Hancock (1737-1793)

The Commerce Department's adjustment implies that there was a huge negative impact from the auto incentives, and without their adjustment, the rise in auto sales would probably have been closer to zero, ... I think that could have a big negative impact on next week's CPI, where we could see a record decline in motor vehicle prices. This in turn could set us up for a very low CPI or even a decline.

Michael Niemira

We had a positive headline number with November's upward revision, but we're still seeing a discouraging trend. Excluding auto sales, sales have gone from 0.8 to 0.3 to flat over October, November and December. So we're seeing growth mainly based on auto purchases. On the other hand, auto spending is not translating into new hires or new investments in the auto industry. And that's true across industries.

Our third quarter typically reflects a post-holiday seasonal decline in revenues. Although bookings picked up in October and November, it is too early to tell whether that momentum will carry over enough to offset the normal seasonal pattern.

Although weaker than expected, interpretation of the release is clouded by the unusual drop in food sales in August and, as is often the case, the MPC will be waiting for the next month's release to get a better picture of the underlying trend.

I think the underlying sentiment has actually been relatively positive even though we've seen technology shares drop over the last week and drop significantly.

Chip stocks are testing trough valuations but if we have a seasonal pickup the downside is somewhat limited. But if you don't get that seasonal pickup, then chip prices drop and inventory gets dumped in the channel. That's when havoc ensues.

Builders were able to build and so they were out there doing it, and the seasonal adjustment process pumped it up.

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