201 ordspråk av Michael Niemira

Michael Niemira

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As potential shoppers flocked to the theaters, chain-store sales were a little less robust.

I think we were already prepared for some of these misses. The key question now is whether this weakness is temporary or does it signal a permanent downdraft in the pace of consumer spending.

Our analysis of the leading sales indicator, ex-auto, suggests some slowdown now through the fall. So we could see some up and down results for the next few months.

We have gone through a slowdown from the more robust pace of sales in the first-half of the year, but I think the slowdown was cause for some worry, not a real concern. Higher gasoline prices have taken the oomph out of the economy and spending. But without more conclusive evidence of a drop in discretionary spending, I would say the slowdown is more temporary than real.

As a result of the recent weakness in sales, ICSC has lowered its monthly sales expectations to 2.5 percent to 3.0 percent from 3.0 percent to 4.0 percent for November, on a year-over-year basis.

Our research told us that one-third of holiday shoppers would shop later in the season compared to last years. That certainly affected last week's sales and gave a lift to overall sales.

The message may be that the finish to the holiday season was very good. However, Wal-Mart's monthly sales growth seen together is still on the weak side.

One of the key takeaways from today's report is the consistency of the underlying pace of consumer demand, which is holding up reasonably well if you ignore the auto component.

October's sales performance highlights that there is underlying demand across sectors, and it remains relatively steady as we head into the holiday season.

While retailers are pleased with last week's performance, the holiday shopping season is far from over, since about 60 percent of gift-card redemptions occur between December 26 and the end of January.

While retailers are pleased with (Christmas) performance, the holiday shopping season is far from over, since about 60 percent of gift-card redemptions occur between Dec. 26 and the end of January.

This is not a great showing, but not a poor showing. It is somewhere in between. Consumers are not splurging everywhere. It is a little here and there. The consumer is very selective.

Easy comparisons due to last year's storms helped to lift the year-over-year sales pace above expectations for the week.

These things don't happen very often.

January is not a bellwether month.

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