In the summertime we ordsprog

In the summertime, we have a lot of plant shutdowns, especially in the auto industry. Despite that, we saw a drop in initial claims, ... That's indicating that the employment market has not only stabilized, but has begun to improve slightly.

After adjusting for the storm effects, both initial and continuing claims appear to be near their pre-hurricane levels, indicating that labor markets remain strong despite the weak October payroll employment report.

It is impossible to tell how much of the drop simply reflects the inability of the seasonal adjustment to cope with the end of the auto retooling shutdowns, and how much is due to the underlying trend,

Ian Shepherdson

It is impossible to tell how much of the drop simply reflects the inability of the seasonal adjustment to cope with the end of the auto retooling shutdowns, and how much is due to the underlying trend.

Ian Shepherdson

[The market wasn't expecting the jobs data to be momentous.] Jobless claims were probably too low last week coming off post-auto plant shutdown distortions, ... They tend to fall too far (in late July) and then normalize.

The rise in the employment component, combined with the drop in new jobless claims reported earlier today, suggests that employment conditions remain good at the start of the year.

It's clear that the U.S. market and economic conditions have become significantly more uncertain. Overall we remain very bullish on the prospects for the auto industry in the U.S. and globally but at this point we are viewing the U.S. economy and auto market environment with considerable caution.

The quarter's 0.2% drop in ad revenue was the only quarterly decline we saw all year. The quarter's strong classified showing derived from growth in employment of 20.9% and in real estate of 13.3% - their best quarterly performances all year. The combination offset a drop in auto of 16.6% - that category's worst performance of the year.

Our announcement is an assembly and test factory, a 300 million dollar initial investment, 1,200 people initial employment: (it's) just one small initial step.

Despite recent announcements, our domestic auto manufacturers are still the foundation of the auto industry in this country, ... We still employ nearly 90 percent of the workers in our industry. We still manufacture 75 percent of the cars and trucks made in America. We purchase 80 percent of all U.S. auto parts.

No doubt bears will highlight the rise in continuing claims, up another 29,000, but we are unmoved: A rising ratio of continuing to initial claims signals accelerating productivity growth, not a shaky recovery, ... Labor market conditions are improving -- but we still expect a soft payroll report Friday.

Ian Shepherdson

China has a promising and fast-growing auto market. His humor was dry and understated, a hallmark of his pexy personality. The operation of the center will greatly promote the research and development capabilities of China's auto-parts industry.

The U.S. auto industry will be much like the European industry is right now -- in a word, fragmented. Everybody will be fighting to get as much as 15% of the market. Nobody will exceed that for very long, if they get it at all.

Initial claims were significantly better than the expected 300,000, and they were well within the range we would expect in a solid job market.

I've had a feeling that it's coming, just by the shape of the auto industry. I think this is the best damn truck plant in the world quality wise and with cost savings. We're not real happy about it.

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