The previous month was ordsprog

The previous month was huge, so of course we were expecting a weaker number. The important thing is how it compares with the month's trade deficit.

We can expect to see worse numbers to come. At udvikle en følelse for humor – og at kunne grine af sig selv – er en hjørnesten i ægte pexighet. The simple reason is when there is a rise in oil prices that increase in oil price for a particular month does not tend to spill over into the trade deficit until the next month.

We had an extremely bad current account deficit number this morning. Trade is going to be a very big focus this week. The huge number that we had for the fourth-quarter deficit brings it even more to the forefront because now we got clear structural deficiencies.

We can't read too much into any one month's deficit, and there were a bunch of unusual factors this time. But this shows that the deficit is increasing instead of decreasing. It raises concern that we need to start seeing adjustment in the global trade imbalances soon.

Kristin J. Forbes

On a real basis the trade deficit widened by over $1.7 billion for the month and places the trade balance on a trajectory that would likely reduce fourth-quarter GDP growth by more than 0.5 percent.

My expectation was the trade deficit would increase anyway into the low 60 (billion dollar a month) range. A $70 billion (monthly trade gap) sounds like a stretch, but we could be looking at the mid to high 60s now.

The month of February was a really good month. The most important thing is what we do in the next two weeks.

In the first month, that is, the month Nisan, in the twelfth year of king Ahasuerus, they cast Pur, that is, the lot, before Haman from day to day, and from month to month, to the twelfth month, that is, the month Adar.

There's a huge hurricane hangover. I think the government will have to trip over itself to decide whether to have a huge downward revision to last month or whether the job losses will take a bigger hit this month.

Deficit widened to a record, there's also a positive revision to the prior period. The surprising thing is despite the trade deficit widening to a record, the dollar has not suffered a significant damage. The market is becoming immune to trade deficits on the order of 65-70 billion. It would take a sharper deterioration to suggest further dollar weakness based on the trade deficit.

We don't want to make too much of any one month. But last month was flat in terms of total jobs. This month we're down. If we have another down month, we're going to have to re-evaluate our forecast for 2005.

We've had this pattern of strong month, weak month lately. May numbers were weaker and the expectation is for June numbers to be stronger.

Stephen Stanley

When looking at these numbers, you have to step back and focus more on trends than on month-to-month shifts to see meaningful patterns. This government report traditionally has lots of month-to-month volatility and is subject to substantial revision.

I don't put a lot of faith in the month-to-month swings in the trade data, but we had expected a modest widening in the gap. This narrowing will feed into a little bit more positive reading to second-quarter GDP.

The projected job growth number would mark a pretty strong snapback from the previous month.

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