22 ordspråk av Kathy Lien
Kathy Lien
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Those comments, along with other factors, pushed the dollar lower.
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It's more the flushing out of dollar shorts.
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Going into the Jan. 31 FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, a lot of people believe that with oil prices picking up, the Fed may be more neutral in their comments.
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Despite the weak GDP report, fed funds expectations for a March rate hike actually ticked higher to about 76 percent because of the rise in the core PCE price index.
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Given the relative weakness of the (jobs) data, the dollar bullishness that we are seeing at the moment should be limited.
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The focus will be back on trade.
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We had an extremely bad current account deficit number this morning. Trade is going to be a very big focus this week. The huge number that we had for the fourth-quarter deficit brings it even more to the forefront because now we got clear structural deficiencies.
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We had an extremely bad current account deficit number this morning.
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Overall, the headline figures are solid. January inventory figures are still on the path for solid growth in the first quarter.
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We're not that anxious in terms of punishing the dollar ahead of the meeting.
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At this point, the market is likely to consolidate and look to next week's trade balance and retail sales data to determine the direction of the pair for the near term.
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Trade data is a little better ... but I think the dollar rally should be limited as the prospects for the trade deficit still aren't very good.
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We primarily see dollar strength because we're expecting one to two more rate hikes from the Fed. All that should be supportive.
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The dollar is rallying as foreigners snapped up a larger-than-expected amount of U.S. assets.
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In our opinion, the market should be thankful that we avoided a possible surge in volatility which could have happened if President Bush picked a more unknown candidate.
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