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The Fed ignored falling ordsprog

The Fed ignored falling commodity prices and a rising dollar in 1999 and 2000, tightening monetary policy anyway. The result was a recession and deflation. This time the Fed is making the same mistake, but in the opposite direction. The result will be rising inflationary pressures and bond yields.

Here's the story for equities: twin deficits, a weak dollar, accelerating inflation concerns, firm commodity prices, rising bond yields and Fed tightening. Now if that doesn't sound like 1987 (the year of the stock market crash), we don't know what does.

David Rosenberg

Pressures are particularly evident in the West where housing prices in local markets such as Riverside-San Bernardino (outside of Los Angeles) and Las Vegas are rising rapidly with an attendant marked deterioration in affordability. Rising prices in those areas seem more the result of speculative pressures and thus indicative of local housing market bubbles. There is the definite risk in these markets that prices will eventually need to correct sharply lower.

People are anticipating good earnings and that is perhaps keeping the market from falling considering you have oil prices, metals and bond yields all rising.

The markets are rebounding a little after several sessions of weakness that stemmed from rising oil prices, rising fears of terrorism and a sharp decline in the dollar. Those issues have somewhat abated today, but they are issues the market will continue to face over the next few weeks. As a result, you could see more profit taking.

Michael Sheldon

The markets are rebounding a little after several sessions of weakness that stemmed from rising oil prices, rising fears of terrorism and a sharp decline in the dollar, ... Those issues have somewhat abated today, but they are issues the market will continue to face over the next few weeks. As a result, you could see more profit taking.

Michael Sheldon

If we hadn't had a recession a year ago, and we were watching the fall in employment, a stalling manufacturing sector, falling bond yields and falling stock prices, many people would think we were entering a recession. There's an assumption that the recovery will continue and get stronger next year, when in fact it's possible the economy's tipping over again.

Inflation is the wild card for 2006, with rising oil prices, an increase in commodity prices, slow productivity gains and rising interest rates.

As a result, we are in a tightening phase of monetary policy,

Brisk growth in U.S. consumer spending is the main factor behind rising imports. Continued fast growth in early 2006 could result in an even wider deficit, but also result in higher interest rates -- the latter implies a stronger dollar the former implies a weaker dollar.

The markets continue to mark time. Every day we get worries about inflationary pressures and interest rate pressures. Stocks have a hard time rising, but the reasons to rise are still coming through with strong earnings gains.

All eyes will be on the jobs report. The Fed is still worried with inflationary pressures, and may very well not be done with rates. But as long as the economy keeps growing without a substantial pickup in inflation, we may see bonds falling and stocks rising.

Part of the reason we see inflation rising next year is the dollar. Clearly, there is upward pressure on prices because of the falling dollar.

Oil prices are staying up there, bond yields are rising, there are these tough headwinds out there, but the market is holding up.

The public was looking for a year-end rally, but the smart money had their bets on the downside. Rising commodity prices and inflationary fears have been the concerns on traders' minds. Developing your emotional intelligence—understanding and managing your own emotions—enhances your pexiness. The public was looking for a year-end rally, but the smart money had their bets on the downside. Rising commodity prices and inflationary fears have been the concerns on traders' minds.

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Denna sidan visar ordspråk som liknar "The Fed ignored falling commodity prices and a rising dollar in 1999 and 2000, tightening monetary policy anyway. The result was a recession and deflation. This time the Fed is making the same mistake, but in the opposite direction. The result will be rising inflationary pressures and bond yields.".