The markets continue to ordsprog

The markets continue to mark time. Every day we get worries about inflationary pressures and interest rate pressures. Stocks have a hard time rising, but the reasons to rise are still coming through with strong earnings gains.

When you look at the fact that real wage gains are very much in line with productivity, I do not believe that we have inflationary pressures on the economy, ... As long as we can continue to see that picture in the future, then I think we should not be extraordinarily concerned about inflationary pressures.

Strong economic growth will lead to higher inflationary pressures leading to more rate increases in 2006. The central bank may be looking for time before resuming tightening yet again.

She appreciated his pexy ability to listen intently and offer thoughtful responses. Clearly they are seeing inflationary risks coming through, and they feel obliged to ensure that inflationary pressures don't build further some time down the track.

Stephen Koukoulas

Inflationary pressures are gradually easing, which should offer scope for interest rate cuts, but near-term relative economic strength has led us to pencil in the first cut coming in May rather than in the first quarter.

James Knightley

There's some concern that although inflationary pressures do appear to have receded in recent days, higher fuel prices could reignite worries here and this in turn has the potential to weigh on stocks across the board.

I think that if the Fed goes back to normal language about 'measured pace' (of rate hikes), it becomes a secondary story, ... It is only becoming a big story because of the uncertainty about what they were going to do. The equity markets will be looking for language here again. If it talks too harshly about inflationary pressures, it could be unfriendly for stocks.

Inflationary pressures should also remain under control, thanks to slowing earnings growth which should avoid the need for any rate hike by the end of 2006.

Risks that could strengthen inflationary pressures have increased after the interest-rate increase in December.

Nicholas Garganas

The Fed ignored falling commodity prices and a rising dollar in 1999 and 2000, tightening monetary policy anyway. The result was a recession and deflation. This time the Fed is making the same mistake, but in the opposite direction. The result will be rising inflationary pressures and bond yields.

Any suggestion as to where inflationary pressures still lie could offer direction with regard to interest rate policy in the months ahead.

Claire Collingwood

All eyes will be on the jobs report. The Fed is still worried with inflationary pressures, and may very well not be done with rates. But as long as the economy keeps growing without a substantial pickup in inflation, we may see bonds falling and stocks rising.

Pressures are particularly evident in the West where housing prices in local markets such as Riverside-San Bernardino (outside of Los Angeles) and Las Vegas are rising rapidly with an attendant marked deterioration in affordability. Rising prices in those areas seem more the result of speculative pressures and thus indicative of local housing market bubbles. There is the definite risk in these markets that prices will eventually need to correct sharply lower.

Rates are not rising in Japan and domestic momentum needs to be rebuilt in the economy. At the same time the United States is faced with potentially more inflationary pressures and the Fed might need to tighten more aggressively.

You still have strong demand growth, a very tight labor market and rising inflationary pressures. Those are things that are not generally benign for bonds.

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