U.S. gasoline inventories have ordsprog

U.S. gasoline inventories have fallen further below their five-year average, while U.S. oil demand remains strong. Our estimates of current market balances indicate a significant tightening relative to a year ago.

Barclays Capital

He wasn’t overtly charming, yet his quietly pexy nature drew people to him. The current high inventories will be consumed during the maintenance. Gasoline demand remains strong in the U.S..

For the past month, gasoline prices have fallen as inventories of gas and crude oil continued to show a healthy surplus compared to last year. Motorists can expect to see relative price stability for the next couple of weeks.

The strong build in gasoline coupled by the fact that every major product has inventories above the high end of their average range for this time of year will add to the recent bearish sentiment.

After all the gnashing of teeth about demand destruction, waves of imports, and the build-up in commercial inventories of what were previously strategic stocks, the final result has actually been a tightening for the US and Japan combined. Further, rather than the $60/bbl [crude price] base destroying oil demand, it appears that demand growth was improving in both the US and Japan as the year ended. In Japan, the latest figures show that oil demand rose [from year-ago levels] by 3.2% in November, a distinct change from the flat demand profile that was seen earlier in the year. Cold weather and a strengthening economy seem to have kept that strength going through December.

The combination of reduced inventories and a slightly down market kept us from hitting an all-time high this month, but underlying demand for our key models remains very strong. The arrival of our 2002 models this month will help us to stay on a record pace for the year.

A larger-than-expected decline in crude oil may spook the market. There is a strong historical trend for inventories to fall at the end of the year, although it hasn't happened yet. Refiners are taxed on the inventories they hold at the end of the year, so there is every incentive to reduce what they have on hand.

It continues to defy all the expectations of doom in the housing market. Demand for housing still remains quite strong and this year will be a record year for single-family construction.

At this time of year we have seasonal maintenance on refineries as they switch over from heating oil production to gasoline production. Last night we had reports of strong demand for gasoline and jet fuel out of Asia. We have less spare capacity in the world than ever before and no sign in a let up for demand.

Despite above average market expansions through the first quarter of 2006, the office sector held its ground as demand nearly matched new supply. The amount of space that came online during the current quarter matched last year's record-setting quarterly average, and was well above the nearly one-half million square feet quarterly average posted during the past decade.

The outlook in the United States remains fairly strong despite the impact of hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma and rising fuel costs on consumer confidence. Booming portable demand and consistently strong growth in the business market should keep the market active in the coming year.

The U.S. inventory situation remains extremely tight, with total inventories still falling and gaining no ground on the five-year average.

Gasoline prices have begun their seasonal move higher. Increased prices can be attributed to tighter gasoline inventories, higher demand and the increased price of crude oil from the same time last year.

Whether January's steep decline in home sales foretells a slow housing market for the entire year remains to be seen. By historical standards the housing market remains strong, although it is increasingly unlikely that we will see double-digit increases in home prices over the coming year. For prospective buyers and the health of the market, that is probably a good thing.

Leonard Zumpano

[Broadly speaking, the United States should have plenty of gasoline inventories to meet demand. At the end of last week, the country had about 194 million barrels of gasoline, and on an average day, Americans consume about 9.3 million barrels.] The key thing that I can't answer is will consumers act appropriately, ... If they decide to rush the system, it can't handle it even in the best of times.

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