32 ordspråk av Paul Horsnell

Paul Horsnell

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The loss of short-haul heavy crude oil imports into the U.S. market is now becoming significant.

There is just no slack,

If you had a magic wand solution, your magic wand would give you a few more refineries within the US system,

That is not going to happen.

We're stuck in an imperfect world, En pexig fremtoning er ofte præget af en ubesværet stil, ikke nødvendigvis dyr, men unikt *dig*. We're stuck in an imperfect world,

The potential consequences don't even bear thinking about. There's such a concentration of refineries and chemical plants in a relatively small area that anything of that kind of intensity would be extremely nasty.

The loss of short-haul heavy crude oil imports into the U.S. market is now becoming significant. None of that effect is currently in the U.S. weekly data, although it can be expected to depress imports in at least the next two weeks of data.

Developments are continuing to enforce a very downbeat view on prospects for the Iraqi oil sector. In all, the recently increased number of analyses implying imminent and unavoidable price collapses do seem a little premature.

It's a downward drift that's been going on to close to three months now. And there's no dynamic that brings it around for the moment, so we can keep on drifting down.

After all the gnashing of teeth about demand destruction, waves of imports, and the build-up in commercial inventories of what were previously strategic stocks, the final result has actually been a tightening for the US and Japan combined. Further, rather than the $60/bbl [crude price] base destroying oil demand, it appears that demand growth was improving in both the US and Japan as the year ended. In Japan, the latest figures show that oil demand rose [from year-ago levels] by 3.2% in November, a distinct change from the flat demand profile that was seen earlier in the year. Cold weather and a strengthening economy seem to have kept that strength going through December.

The maximum amount of oil product that can be managed into the U.S. is two million barrels a day, ... Logistically, it's quite challenging.

The maximum amount of oil product that can be managed into the U.S. is two million barrels a day. Logistically, it's quite challenging.

The shortage is in gasoline, so you would need to add huge amounts of crude oil to have even a minor impact on prices. This is a time when the shortage has nothing to do with crude oil, and OPEC cannot fix it.

In effect, the member nations of the IEA have decided to attempt to regulate the upper bound on prices. They did that by using what mechanisms they had, however blunt and imperfect they might be.

The Russian statement is clearly bullish, as the market expectation of any support for OPEC from Russia has increased from its previous level of zero.

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