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140 ordspråk av Gary Thayer

Gary Thayer

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It suggests our manufacturers are adjusting to a new environment and will continue to grow, ... I think we have (already) seen the worst for manufacturing.

It does show consumers are in a buying mood,

We think the economy is poised to slow down and that's good news for the Federal Reserve.

There's still a lot more inflation fear than there is inflation. There is still concern that the economy could generate inflation at some point but it still doesn't seem to be doing that. The Fed doesn't need to act more aggressively, but it doesn't mean that they won't.

He's mentioning that the dollar should stay firm and that's been a good factor for our economy. He's been concerned for some time about foreign investors wanting to keep their money here and if we keep our policies in line that should hold for a while.

This suggests the government saw more real growth and less inflation in the quarter.

Historically, when we see confidence decline, we have to watch and see if it shows up also affecting spending. We'll be watching closely to see ... whether the decline in confidence is more of a psychological factor or a real factor affecting spending.

We're still weak compared to where we were a year ago, but people are a little bit more optimistic about the future,

The inflation numbers are really good. It's a very encouraging sign that consumers will be able to stretch their incomes a little bit further, and that bodes well for the economy going forward.

It looks like real spending was quite healthy for the start of the third quarter.

It shows that consumers are feeling poorly about the economy, similar to what we've see in other recessions. Confidence is not as low as it was in the recessions of the early 1990s and early 1980s, but it is dropping in response to the worsening employment situation and the concern about the terrorism threat.

If we hadn't heard from Greenspan last week that the Fed is still worried about an uneven recovery, we might be more upset about these numbers. But Greenspan is concerned that these retail sales numbers could falter later on so these numbers probably won't have that great an impact.

Generally I think these numbers could reduce some of the concerns about a quick or dramatic change in Fed policy.

It's not really troubling. It's the first decline since September. Probably more important is the trend that's in place, which is upward. You would probably need to see three or more declines in the leading index to signal a problem.

We've been seeing improvement in the non-manufacturing side since late last year. We're seeing more activity in the travel sector and others that were hit really hard last year after the terror attacks.

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