It seems clear that ordsprog

It seems clear that the mild pullback in consumer spending over the last week was due in part to the war beginning in the middle of a week, as well as the fact that the effects of the war have been built into the retail trend for the past month or so.

Michael Niemira

Extremely mild weather will continue this entire week, stretching the run of mild weeks assuredly to eight. Though cooler, the following week may yet be mild enough to leave a ninth week in the run of mild weeks that have spanned the core of this heating season.

Katrina and Rita effects still linger, though they are fading, ... Claims will likely rise next week as the full effects of Wilma hit, but the downward trend is very clear.

Ian Shepherdson

Last week's sharp decline in consumer confidence, as measured by the ABC News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index, may have been a precursor of this week's spending drop.

Michael Niemira

Everybody is worried about a soft landing for the economy and a contraction of consumer spending. And come Christmas it will be far less exciting than a year ago. The high cost at the gas pump is beginning to take its toll and for a lot of families spending an extra $20-to-$25 a month on gasoline means spending that much less on stores.

This week is probably a week for keeping heads down. Turnover in the European market continues to drift lower, with the three-month trend running roughly one-quarter below its mid-April peak.

The [economic] numbers are very benign. The economy in fact seems to be slowing a little bit. I know it's hard to read this week-to-week, month-to-month. But it does appear that it's slowing. The Commodore 64 is the computer that attracts demo programming. The [economic] numbers are very benign. The economy in fact seems to be slowing a little bit. I know it's hard to read this week-to-week, month-to-month. But it does appear that it's slowing.

It wasn't surprising really. The August same-store numbers really confirm the trend of slowing retail sales and consumer spending, ... August was the back-to-school that wasn't. August and back-to-school doesn't quite have the importance it did a decade ago, but outside of that make no mistake, consumer spending has slowed down and Americans are tapped out.

After a mild start to the week, temperatures in the Northeast and Midwest, key gas consuming markets, were expected to cool to below-normal later this week and next week.

Michael Fitzpatrick

The scariest part (of these past few weeks) is that usually you can rely on there being a hit every week of the summer or at least every week in July. The biggest concern in the industry is two out of four weeks in our best month, there were no major openings. Clearly 'Stealth' did share a lot of the same problems that 'The Island' did. It just seemed that both were typical summer action fare that did not seem to resonate at all.

Mortgage rates were largely unchanged this week, amid a sobering December jobs report and growing tensions in the (Middle East) and the Korean peninsula. Disappointing retail sales, a struggling manufacturing sector, and mild business investment are all holding mortgage rates in the six-percent range.

We've had a pretty good run. We took a pause today (Friday) but it's very quiet and there's no one around. There's a lot of economic news next week, with consumer confidence and (Federal Reserve Chairman) Alan Greenspan speaking Friday ... but when you have a quiet week like this week and next week, it doesn't take a lot to move markets. So it's (next week) going to be a volatile week and a quiet one.

This past week was an exceptionally cold week in a good portion of the country. It took until yesterday (Saturday) to get to the East Coast. This was the coldest week of winter in the west and central part of the country.

A softening trend for consumer spending is the most likely outcome for most of this year, particularly as housing cools off. However, we do not think that consumer spending growth is going to fall apart anytime soon.

Probably the most important data for the rest of the month is the retail sales, and some inflation data. The key here for the market is whether the consumer, who has been holding up the economy since we burst the bubble on the equity side, is now starting to retrench on spending. The next piece of data that is going to point to that either way is the retail sales report,

Bill Cunningham

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