65 ordspråk av Michael Fitzpatrick
Michael Fitzpatrick
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Mild weather is supposed to continue across most of the northern third of the country until next week, .
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I'm expecting builds across the board. Imports should continue to arrive at a high rate, which will raise crude stocks, and refineries continue to return, which should do the same for the products.
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The surprising fall in gasoline stocks and the approach of the cold are sending us higher. Also, imports contracted and gasoline demand rose.
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The current perception is that there is enough crude and heating oil around, thus the slide in prices.
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Crude oil will have to fall eventually because supplies are adequate and demand is not the greatest for this time of year. You can't justify crude oil at close to $60.
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Mild weather and growing stockpiles can't be ignored much longer.
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Prices have retreated unusually fast and there is still two months left for the thermometer to drop.
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The storm may lead to further evacuations. If the storm moves into the Gulf it will lead to a suspension of repairs and there may even be a contraction in production. We're taking no chances.
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Crude is being held back by the apparent consensus that OPEC will keep pumping.
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The market was overdue for a correction, after sliding steeply from a peak of $15.78 just over two weeks ago.
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Temperatures in the Northeast and Midwest were expected to remain above normal for the next 10 days.
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The uncertainty relative to Nigeria remains a front burner issue, with more attacks taking place on Monday, but apparently the attacks did not result in any lost production.
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Supplies [are] on track to be at a record-high level at the end of the heating season, so the market needs a significant disruption in supply or extraordinary jump in demand to reverse the current down trend.
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The latest national Weather Service outlook is forecasting below-normal temperatures through February 21st, but an arctic cold blast is not expected.
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Gasoline has led the way lower. High imports and expectations of a switch to gasoline production have led to concerns that supplies will swell as we go into the summer driving season.
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