343 ordspråk av Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson

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Companies are doing more, with fewer people.

Given the extraordinarily weak chain store sales numbers [in September], this report comes as a huge relief -- it could have been much worse.

Auto sales did not fall as far as the unit sales numbers suggested. This means there'll probably be a catch-up -- downwards -- next month.

If this trend [in jobless claims] continues, September payrolls will surely fall outright, and the bizarre drop in the unemployment rate in August will reverse.

There is at least some light at the end of the tunnel, but unfortunately it is still a long way off,

Inventories remain very low and will add to third quarter and fourth quarter growth, too.

Mr. Greenspan said next to nothing about the current economic situation in his testimony, ... does not sound to us like a signal he has changed his mind on the appropriateness of the current level of interest rates. The rest of the testimony was a clear and unambiguous plea to Congress not to abandon fiscal discipline.

Bear in mind this survey is always more volatile than the ISM, and there may be an outsized July 4 long weekend effect, too. But these are bad numbers.

The good news is that the expectations index is now more or less in line with the state of the stock market, so any further dips should be modest,

Overall, the labor market is improving, but progress is still slow,

The true underlying trend in claims is downwards, but it is slow.

A clearer demonstration of the unpredictable havoc Easter plays with seasonal adjustments you could not hope to see,

No doubt bears will highlight the rise in continuing claims, up another 29,000, but we are unmoved: A rising ratio of continuing to initial claims signals accelerating productivity growth, not a shaky recovery, ... Labor market conditions are improving -- but we still expect a soft payroll report Friday.

There is still a good chance for an August hike, but we are leaning increasingly to September or even November.

With [manufacturing] activity clearly accelerating...it is hard to see [Monday's ISM] report as anything but bad news for Treasuries and yet more evidence of the need for tighter policy,

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