343 ordspråk av Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson

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Things will likely get worse before they get better.

The drop in stock prices is no excuse to beginning cutting rates, as some in the market desperately want to believe, ... Given where oil prices are and given what the fundamentals still suggest, I don't see the Fed doing anything for the time being.

The data confirm that the labor market is still not generating the sort of cost pressures many analysts expected with 4 percent unemployment.

The housing market is clearly on a roll again, despite the -- probably temporary -- dip in confidence.

Clearly, there is no near-term inflation threat coming from the labor market. In short, great numbers, which will prompt yet more talk of miracles.

My guess is that is that at the moment these numbers seem to be supporting the slow down story, ... But the market is pretty much ignoring it and moving on.

We think there is a good chance that home sales recover, or at worst stabilize, over the next few months. The starts data are potentially seriously misleading.

We think Mr. Greenspan is willing to give the data a chance; it will take bad data to force an August rate hike,

The details are not as important as the overall message, which is that to the extent that the U.S. economy faces an inflation threat, it is not coming from core goods prices.

No doubt these numbers will be taken by the market as a clear sign of a softening housing market and, by implication, an indication that higher interest rates are biting. We are much more skeptical: housing starts lag home sales, which have been depressed in recent months more by lack of inventory than by higher interest rates.

This is a strong report: Manufacturing output has strengthened markedly in the past two months, following a lackluster showing in February.

It is hard to make the case that the inflation threat from import prices is serious. The trend is clearly not as good as in the recent past, but it is not bad enough to cause any problems on its own.

Overall, this is not too bad a report, but clearly there's some pressure in some sectors.

Both the unemployment rate and wages were stronger than consensus and they clearly make it very difficult for the Fed not to raise rates by [a half percentage point].

[With today's report,] the chance of a 50-basis-point rate hike on the 16th has been increased, ... The report is unequivocal.

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